Will the Werkself extend their away record?

Bayer Leverkusen has now gone an impressive 35 Bundesliga away games without defeat (23 wins, 12 draws). Although the Rhinelanders have had anything but an ideal start, winning only two of their last ten league games (six draws, two defeats), the current Bundesliga record is still alive, and the Black and Reds will naturally be looking to extend it further at Hamburg’s Millerntor stadium. The top betting providers are also optimistic about St. Pauli’s chances of winning against Leverkusen.

However, it must be noted that the Kiezkickers have performed well in front of their home crowd. At home, FCSP picked up four out of a possible six points from their first two home games of the 2025/26 season. This is a club record for the Brown-Whites, who have already scored three goals in the final quarter of an hour.

It remains to be seen whether that will be enough to end the Werkself’s away streak. In any case, the prediction of goals on both sides makes a lot of sense for St. Pauli vs. Leverkusen, especially since the visitors from the Rhineland have already conceded seven goals after four matchdays.

It is striking that Bayer 04 Leverkusen has scored the opening goal in all four league games of the 2025/26 season so far. Against this backdrop, it is also interesting to note that the Werkself could score the first goal at Millerntor, which could be played at odds of 1.79 for St. Pauli vs. Leverkusen via the practical Merkur Bets app.

Nevertheless, a lead does not necessarily mean anything in terms of the outcome of the game. Not only have the Black and Reds squandered the most points in the league after taking the lead (seven in total), but FCSP has also picked up the most points after falling behind (four) in the top flight of German soccer in 2025/26, which is why we would ultimately refrain from using the three-way system.

St. Pauli vs. Leverkusen Prediction AI

While we would shy away from the double chance X2 from a human perspective and consider the tip for an away win for the Rhinelanders far too risky, supercomputer BETSiE approaches the matter with mathematical rationality and recommends precisely that bet. In the Betano app, odds of 2.22 can be found for tip 2, suggesting a 45 percent probability of occurrence. AI lady BETSiE, on the other hand, calculates a 51.6 percent chance of victory for the Rhinelanders in her St. Pauli vs. Leverkusen AI prediction. From an AI perspective, tip 2 offers correspondingly high value.

St. Pauli – Statistics & current form

The starting position is double-edged: since their 3-1 home win in 1996, St. Pauli have remained winless in seven Bundesliga matches against Bayer 04 Leverkusen (two draws, five defeats). At the same time, the Kiezkickers have won more games against the Werkself than against any other team in the top flight (five, the same as against Freiburg). They have also recorded five Bundesliga home wins against Leverkusen.

This underlines the risk we see in betting on an away win for the Black and Reds at St. Pauli against Leverkusen, as the Brown and Whites’ current home form is also good, with four points from their first two home games – a club record for the start of a Bundesliga season.

St. Pauli with comeback qualities

St. Pauli also picked up the most points in the league after falling behind (four) and has already scored three goals in the final quarter of an hour – only Freiburg and Cologne (four each) have scored more. Fittingly, Leverkusen conceded three goals in this period, but at the same time was the only team to score three times in the opening quarter of an hour. Early stability is therefore a must for Alexander Blessin’s team.

The statistics also favor Hamburg: four goals scored and only one goal conceded from set pieces (best in the league). Leverkusen has scored five goals from set pieces, but has already conceded four goals from set pieces (only Cologne and Hoffenheim have conceded more). Discipline and tackling remain the key to winning points, however: FCSP has the second-worst tackling rate at 47.2 percent and has already committed 57 fouls (only Hoffenheim has more).

Leverkusen – Statistics & current form

The streak continues under Kasper Hjulmand: Leverkusen travels with a historic away run. They have already recorded 35 Bundesliga away games without defeat, which is a current record (23 wins, twelve draws). At the same time, their recent form has been somewhat disappointing. Only two wins in their last ten Bundesliga games (six draws, two defeats) point to problems that have not yet been completely resolved by the change of coach.

Since the start of the 29th matchday of last season, only Borussia Mönchengladbach has won fewer games among the teams that have remained in the top flight. A pattern of the current season: Leverkusen has been in the lead on all four matchdays, but has already dropped seven points – the highest number in the league. Controversially, St. Pauli has already come from behind to win several times (four points).

Leverkusen and set pieces

However, the Werkself has made its mark when it comes to set pieces: five goals from set pieces (three from free kicks, two from penalties), with only FC Bayern scoring more often. However, the Rhinelanders have also been very vulnerable in this area. They have already conceded four goals from set pieces. Only Cologne and Hoffenheim have conceded more. Accordingly, the odds on an away win for the Black and Reds at St. Pauli against Leverkusen should be treated with caution.

In open play, Werkself impresses with the best tackle rate in the league at 55.3 percent (alongside Freiburg) and attracts a lot of fouls (51 opponent fouls). Nevertheless, a little more consistency is needed. There have already been nine changes to the starting lineup and 22 players used in the first four matchdays. Up front, Patrik Schick is making his mark away from home. In the 2025 calendar year, he scored eleven Bundesliga away goals in eleven games. In the last two away games, he even scored a brace in each, setting a club record (by Kai Havertz and Ulf Kirsten).

St. Pauli – Leverkusen Head-to-head record

Head to head: 8 – 8 – 8

The two teams have met 24 times so far, and the head-to-head record is completely even. Both teams have won eight times and eight times the match ended in a draw – including Hamburg’s last home game at Millerntor in April 2025 (1:1). Nevertheless, FCSP has been waiting for a win against Werkself for seven Bundesliga games now (two draws, five defeats).

St. Pauli – Leverkusen Tip

Although the betting odds for St. Pauli vs. Leverkusen favor the visitors, who have not lost in 35 Bundesliga away games (23 wins, twelve draws), there is not really much value to be found in betting on Bayer 04 to extend their away streak at Millerntor due to the Rhinelanders’ lack of consistency. However, due to the Rhinelanders’ lack of consistency, there is not really much value in betting on Bayer 04 extending their away streak at the Millerntor.

The FCSP have been too strong so far, picking up four out of a possible six points at home and also demonstrating their comeback qualities. The Kiezkickers have already picked up four points in 2025/26 after falling behind – the highest number in the league. The Black and Reds, on the other hand, have already squandered seven points after taking the lead.

We are therefore refraining from predicting the outcome of the match between St. Pauli and Leverkusen and are instead betting on both teams scoring during the game. Not only have there been goals at both ends in the last three Bundesliga encounters between the two teams, but both clubs have been equally accurate in front of goal and defensively vulnerable in 2025/26.