Will the Saxons win at Millerntor for the first time?
On matchday 16, this game fell victim to the onset of winter in Hamburg, and even now it seemed as if the scheduled catch-up game was once again in jeopardy. However, on Monday afternoon, the all-clear was given: despite the snow flurries, the game will go ahead on Tuesday evening. The trend between St. Pauli and RB Leipzig is toward an away win for the Saxons, who won 3-0 in Heidenheim at the weekend.
The Kiezkickers, on the other hand, have only recorded two wins at home with just eight goals scored (the lowest in the league) and are bottom of the Bundesliga home table.
It is interesting to note, however, that the Saxons have not been particularly successful at the Millerntor Stadium so far, to put it mildly. RBL have not scored a single goal in three away games against the Kiezkickers so far, picking up only one point out of a possible nine. However, given the poor form of the home side, we expect FCSP to lose their fourth home game against the Red Bulls.
Against this backdrop, our prediction for St. Pauli vs. RB Leipzig is an away win for Ole Werner’s team, which could see them climb to third place in the table.
It is also striking that in three home games between the Brown-Whites and the Saxons, only two goals have been scored in total. There were also no goals last Friday in the city derby against Hamburger SV. So if you don’t want to categorically rule out the possibility of the Red Bulls dropping points and also consider a result like 0-0 to be entirely realistic, you can avoid the three-way system by betting on under 2.5 goals.
St. Pauli – Statistics & current form
With only 13 points after 18 Bundesliga games, FC St. Pauli is having its second-worst Bundesliga season in the club’s history. Only in the 2001/02 season did the team have fewer points at this stage. Compared to last season, they are four points behind after 18 games. Although the Kiezkickers moved past 1. FC Heidenheim with a 0-0 draw against HSV, they are still two points behind the relegation spot and five points away from safety.
The FCSP has currently gone four Bundesliga games without a win and has won only one of its last 15 games. During this period, Alexander Blessin’s team, who is rumored to be in talks with Eintracht Frankfurt as Toppmöller’s successor, has only picked up six points, the fewest in the league. Even in the first three matchdays of this season, St. Pauli collected more points (seven) than in these 15 games.
St. Pauli lacks punch in attack
In the home table, the Kiezkickers are even in 18th place with only eight points. Most recently, they managed a 0-0 draw against Hamburger SV, their first home game without conceding a goal this Bundesliga season. The Brown-Whites have thus picked up four points from their last two home games, the same number as from their first six home games of the current season.
However, the big shortcoming remains their lack of firepower, which is also reflected in the fact that they have scored only eight goals at home – the lowest in the league. Offensively, St. Pauli has the lowest average number of shots per game in the Bundesliga with 10.2. Their expected goals value of 0.8 per game is also the lowest in the league. In eight Bundesliga games, the Kiezkickers have failed to score a single goal, with only Borussia Mönchengladbach failing to score more often (nine).
RB Leipzig – Statistics & current form
After a disappointing 2024/25 season, in which they failed to qualify for any European competition, RB Leipzig are currently back on course for the Champions League. If the tip for an away win for the Red Bulls against St. Pauli comes true, they could jump to third place. However, RBL has failed to score or win in three away games at the Millerntor so far. There were two 0-1 defeats in the 2nd division and a 0-0 draw in the Bundesliga.
The Saxons have not played as many away games without scoring against any other club since 2013.
On the other hand, things have gone very well defensively for the Saxons. In the current Bundesliga season, Ole Werner’s team has kept nine clean sheets, setting a new club record after 18 games. Only Borussia Dortmund has kept more clean sheets (ten) during this period. In addition, Leipzig has conceded the fewest goals from set pieces in the league and has yet to concede a goal from a penalty.
RB Leipzig is well-rehearsed and accurate
Accordingly, the top bookmakers are now offering favorable odds for an away win for the Red Bulls at St. Pauli, who have had the second-most shots in the Bundesliga with an average of 16.3 shots per game and an expected goals value of 1.9 per game. Both values will only be surpassed by FC Bayern Munich in 2025/26.
The newly gained consistency is certainly also due to the lack of participation in European competition, which allowed Ole Werner to stick largely to his first eleven. With only 22 changes to the starting lineup, RBL made the fewest rotations of any Bundesliga club. Added to this is the Saxons’ knack for talented young players. Yan Diomande recently emerged as the discovery of the season, with ten goal contributions as a 19-year-old, putting him in double digits and making him part of an exclusive circle in Europe’s top leagues.
St. Pauli – RB Leipzig Head-to-head record
Head to head: 3 – 1 – 3
A total of seven competitive matches have been played between the two teams so far, with three wins and one draw each, making the head-to-head record between the two teams completely even. However, RB Leipzig have yet to win at the Millerntor in three away games against FC St. Pauli (one draw, two defeats) and have not scored a single goal in a 0-0 draw and two 0-1 defeats.
St. Pauli – RB Leipzig Tip
Basically, our prediction for St. Pauli vs. RB Leipzig is an away win for the Red Bulls, who have kept a clean sheet nine times in the first 18 Bundesliga matchdays and are now visiting the weakest home team in the top flight of German soccer. The Kiezkickers have only scored eight goals at the Millerntor Stadium, making them by far the weakest home offense in the Bundesliga. Considering that the Saxons have just recorded an impressive 3-0 win at 1. FC Heidenheim in the Ostalb, we think it is very likely that RBL will be able to take all three points for the first time in their fourth away game at FCSP.
Although it would be perfectly valid not to categorically rule out results such as another 0-0 draw and to avoid the three-way system by betting on a low-scoring match at Hamburg’s Millerntor, we believe that the Red Bulls have a very good chance of winning away. This straightforward tip that the Saxons will consolidate their Champions League spot with a win in the rescheduled game offers us the greatest value.
