Will St. Pauli celebrate staying up at the Millerntor?

The players, fans and officials of FC St. Pauli will be watching intently on Friday evening as Heidenheim battle it out against Bochum in the relegation thriller in the Ostalb. If FCH, currently in the relegation play-off spot, fail to win, the Kiezkickers will have the chance to celebrate staying up on Saturday afternoon. Regardless of what happens at the Schlossberg at the start of the 32nd matchday in the Bundesliga, it is risky to bet on St. Pauli against VfB Stuttgart before the match.

Although coach Alexander Blessin’s team has been in strong form recently, losing only one of its last seven league games in the German top flight, it is important to bear in mind when making a St. Pauli vs. VfB Stuttgart prediction that only three of 15 games at home at the Millerntor have been won throughout the entire season. In addition, the Swabians are traveling to the Elbe with a team that has been struggling for many weeks to strike a reasonably good balance between effort and reward.

Nevertheless, one cannot shake the feeling that Hoeneß’s team can go on a winning streak at any time, provided they manage to minimize the number of mistakes in their own possession game and convert the chances they create more effectively. Despite the impressive stability against the ball that continues to characterize the promoted team from Hamburg, it could actually be an exciting approach to consider over goals odds ahead of the St. Pauli vs. VfB Stuttgart match.

St. Pauli vs. VfB Stuttgart prediction AI

The bookmakers’ odds on the winner and thus also the associated probabilities of occurrence are fairly close. Artificial intelligence, on the other hand, sees relatively clear advantages for the visitors from Stuttgart. The 43.4% calculated by “BETSiE” for an away win significantly exceed the 37% offered by the betting providers. However, as the predicted xG values of 1.17 to 1.39 suggest a close and evenly matched contest, the St. Pauli vs. VfB Stuttgart AI prediction is for DNB 2 at 1.84 with Winamax. In the event of a draw, the stake would be returned.

St. Pauli – Statistics & current form

With three matchdays to go, FC St. Pauli are six points ahead of the relegation spot and also have a significantly better goal difference than all three clubs currently occupying the bottom three places in the table. The cushion seems extremely comfortable, which is why the probability that the promoted team from the Elbe will be able to get a taste of the Bundesliga again next season is very high. This is also underlined by history, as no first division team has ever squandered such a lead in the final sprint since the introduction of the three-point rule.

St. Pauli’s development curve continues to point upwards

Furthermore, it must also be noted that the Kiezkickers are not even remotely performing like a team that is seriously fighting for survival. Instead, the “Boys in Brown” have undergone an astonishing development over the course of the season. From pragmatic football primarily focused on defense and counterattacks to more ball control, more courage, and a completely different self-image. Coach Alexander Blessin can therefore be credited with doing a top job, which has not gone unnoticed by other clubs.

However, before Blessin considers offers from other clubs, the 51-year-old wants to secure the team’s place in the league this weekend. That would happen if Hamburg pick up more points than 1. FC Heidenheim on matchday 32. For the STP coach, it would be a perfect ending to his career, as it would be against the club from his hometown, where he played all seven of his Bundesliga matches as a professional.

After four unbeaten league games in a row (1-3-0) and three consecutive home games without defeat, the North Germans should definitely not be underestimated. However, considering that they have only won one of their last six home games and only three home games in total in the entire Bundesliga season, my St. Pauli vs. VfB Stuttgart prediction is not leaning towards a home win. Nevertheless, I wouldn’t be surprised if the very flexible and counter-attacking offense underlines its improved form and scores at least once in its seventh match in the last eight matchdays and in its fourth (!) home game in a row.

VfB Stuttgart – Statistics & current form

It is truly inexplicable that VfB Stuttgart, as the (still) reigning runner-up, is currently languishing in eleventh place and has only a mathematical chance in the per mille range of qualifying for European competition in the league. At the moment, the Swabians have 23 (!) points less than after 31 matchdays last season. This record-breaking slump is primarily due to the fact that the offense regularly squanders chances and the defense often leaves them behind due to a lack of concentration, especially in build-up play.

Stuttgart is currently stronger away than at home

Coach Sebastian Hoeneß’s team has won just one of its last ten Bundesliga games. There have also been three draws and six defeats. The low point so far was last Friday’s 0-1 home defeat to 1. FC Heidenheim, when VfB failed to score despite 70% possession, an xG value of 1.90 goals and 19 shots on goal. It was also their sixth (!) Bundesliga home defeat in a row.

Against this backdrop, it is safe to predict that the cup finalists, who would secure a Europa League spot with a win in the DFB Cup final against Bielefeld, are not too sad to board the coach northward ahead of the St. Pauli vs. VfB Stuttgart match.

Away from home, Stiller, Woltemade, Undav, and Co. have recently picked up four points from two games. First, there was a 4-0 win in Bochum, followed by a spectacular 4-4 draw at Union Berlin. In four of the last six Bundesliga away games involving VfB, over 2.5 goals would have been successful. In total, almost four goals per game were scored in the aforementioned period.

Not only subjective assessment, but also objective statistical evaluation justifies betting on three or more goals after 90 minutes between St. Pauli and VfB Stuttgart. However, those who believe in a breakthrough for Hoeneß’s protégés will get their money’s worth in the Betano app with odds of 2.60 for an away win and can also benefit from the $20 free bet at Betano.

St. Pauli – VfB Stuttgart Head-to-head record / H2H record

22 matches have been played between these clubs. With 14 wins, five draws, and only three defeats, VfB Stuttgart leads the head-to-head record very clearly. Of the last eleven encounters in the top flight, the Swabians have won nine. The only defeat in this review came shortly before Christmas. Three days before Christmas Eve, the Kiezkickers won 1-0 in Bad Cannstatt. Johannes Eggestein scored the winning goal in the 21st minute and even missed out on a brace after the break when he missed a penalty. Stuttgart had 25 shots on the Pauli goal and once again struggled with their efficiency.

St. Pauli – VfB Stuttgart Tip

Although VfB Stuttgart have virtually squandered their chance to qualify for Europe via the league after just one win in their last ten league games, the remaining three matches are still relevant. After all, it’s about regaining confidence and consolidating automatic responses in order to finally win the title and secure a place in the Europa League in the important cup final against Bielefeld. Despite the poor results, I remain convinced that the Swabians will bounce back, and I believe it’s only a matter of time before success returns to Bad Cannstatt.

I therefore recommend betting on an away win for Hoeneß’s team, but I can also well imagine that the St. Pauli vs. VfB Stuttgart match will see over 2.5 goals. Although the Kiezkickers continue to have the weakest attack in the league and one of the most stable defenses, the visitors are never averse to wild games – the 4-0 win in Bochum and the 4-4 draw at Union Berlin are proof of that. For three or more goals in the game, Winamax is offering odds of 1.80, which I’m betting five out of a possible ten units on.