Will the Kiezkickers continue to lose ground?

While FC St. Pauli is increasingly losing sight of safety, VfB Stuttgart is heading for qualification for the UEFA Champions League. The White and Reds are now unbeaten in seven Bundesliga games (five wins, two draws) and advanced to the semifinals of the DFB Cup again with a 3-0 win in Kiel during the week. In addition, the tip for an away win for Stuttgart at the Millerntor is very popular for St. Pauli vs. VfB Stuttgart, especially since the Kiezkickers have lost eleven of their last 13 competitive games against VfB (one win, one draw).

Overall, the Brown-Whites, who have gone six league games without a win (three draws, three defeats) and have won only one of their last 17 Bundesliga games, are already four points adrift of the relegation play-off spot. Although they have conceded only 16 goals at home, they have also scored only nine, making FCSP the weakest home offense in the Bundesliga. We therefore recommend betting on St. Pauli vs. VfB Stuttgart with a double chance X2 and under 3.5 goals.

Those who are not afraid of taking a slightly higher risk can alternatively place a direct bet on an away win for the Swabians, who have already kept eight clean sheets in the 2025/26 season, which is already more than in the entire 2024/25 season (only seven times).

St. Pauli vs. VfB Stuttgart Prediction AI

AI also expects a low-scoring duel at the Millerntor. The AI calculates an expected goals value of 0.93 for FC St. Pauli and 1.53 for VfB Stuttgart. This is the lowest xG value of all nine matches on matchday 21, which is why the AI prediction for St. Pauli vs. VfB Stuttgart is for less than 2.5 goals.

St. Pauli – Statistics & current form

FC St. Pauli has won only one of its last 13 competitive matches against VfB Stuttgart, suffering eleven defeats during this period. The only victory was a 1-0 away win in December 2024. The last two encounters went to the Swabians, both without conceding a goal. No wonder, then, that the bet365 app offers odds of 4.33 for a home win for the Kiezkickers in St. Pauli vs. VfB Stuttgart.

With 14 points after 20 Bundesliga games, FCSP is already having its second-worst season in the top flight. Only in the 2001/02 season did the team have fewer points at this stage, and that season ended in relegation as the bottom team in the table. Even now, the team is already four points behind the relegation spot, making the situation increasingly precarious for the Hamburg team.

St. Pauli with major problems in attack

St. Pauli are currently without a win in six Bundesliga games (three draws, three defeats) and have won only one of their last 17 games (four draws, twelve defeats). During this period, Alexander Blessin’s team collected the fewest points in the league. However, St. Pauli has remained unbeaten in three consecutive home games, following up an important 2-1 win over bottom-of-the-table Heidenheim with two points against HSV (0-0) and RB Leipzig (1-1).

In these three home games, they conceded only two further goals. Offensively, however, the Brown-Whites are the weakest team in the Bundesliga with 18 goals. The team has failed to score eight times, only Borussia Mönchengladbach more often. These statistics underscore the ongoing problems in front of goal.

VfB Stuttgart – Statistics & current form

With 39 points after 20 Bundesliga games, VfB Stuttgart is having its third-best season in the top flight of German soccer. The last time the team had a comparable points tally was in the 2003/04 and 1983/84 seasons, while only 1982/83 and 2023/24 saw the team achieve more points. There is therefore every reason to believe that St. Pauli vs. VfB Stuttgart will see the White-Reds pick up their next three points.

The momentum is also right. The Swabians are currently unbeaten in seven Bundesliga games (five wins, two draws). This is their longest run since January to April 2024, when they went eleven games without defeat.

Their good form was further confirmed by their return to the semifinals of the DFB Cup after knocking Holstein Kiel out of the competition with a 3-0 win on Wednesday evening.

Strong defensive work to reach the top flight?

One reason why Hoeneß’s team is currently on course for the Champions League is their excellent defensive work. Defensively, VfB have kept eight clean sheets this season. That’s more than in the entire previous season (seven) and as many after 20 games as last seen in the 2006/07 championship season. At the same time, Stuttgart created the most big chances in the league in 2026, but also failed to convert most of them.

Ermedin Demirovic recently scored his 50th Bundesliga goal and was directly involved in both goals in the first half of the season against St. Pauli. Deniz Undav has been involved in 14 goals since matchday eight and has scored in five consecutive Bundesliga away games. Meanwhile, coach Sebastian Hoeneß celebrated his 52nd Bundesliga win, drawing level with Felix Magath in the club’s history.

St. Pauli – VfB Stuttgart Head-to-head record

Head to head: 3 – 5 – 16

The two teams have met a total of 24 times so far, with VfB Stuttgart leading the head-to-head record with 16 wins. The Swabians also won the first leg 2-0 and have prevailed in eleven of their last 13 competitive games against FC St. Pauli (one draw, one defeat).

St. Pauli – VfB Stuttgart Tip

All in all, our prediction for St. Pauli vs. VfB Stuttgart is clearly that the Swabians, who are in good form, will win. While the Kiezkickers suffered another setback in the DFB Cup with a 3-0 defeat in Leverkusen, the Baden-Württemberg side advanced to the semifinals once again with a 3-0 win in Kiel, confirming their recent upward trend of seven Bundesliga games in a row without defeat (five wins, two draws).

Hoeneß’s team has also kept eight clean sheets in the first 20 matchdays and now faces an opponent that has scored only nine goals, the weakest home offense in the Bundesliga.

Nevertheless, FCSP also managed a 1-1 draw against RB Leipzig in their last home game to date, which we would not categorically rule out in this match. Since a goal fest at the Millerntor is not to be expected, it makes a lot of sense to go for the match combo of double chance X2 with under 3.5 goals. For this combined tip, Betano is offering odds of 1.72 for St. Pauli vs. VfB Stuttgart, which we are betting on with five out of ten units.