Will the Blackies keep their chances of reaching the EL playoffs alive?
SK Sturm Graz needed to take a deep breath at the weekend. After an embarrassing 1-3 defeat at home to WSG Tirol during the week, the Blackies responded well in the derby against Grazer AK, winning 2-1. However, the reigning Austrian champions are still far from satisfied on all levels.
The last few weeks, with only three wins from the last eleven competitive games and internal quarrels that were often played out in public, are definitely having an impact. So it comes as no surprise that on Thursday evening, in the sixth matchday of the Europa League between Sturm Graz and Red Star Belgrade, higher odds are being offered for a home win for the Styrians.
However, the Serbs’ status as favorites is also linked to their performance in the Europa League group stage so far. While SK are in 28th place with four points and realistically need seven to nine points from the remaining three matchdays to qualify for the playoffs, the visitors from Belgrade have put themselves in a better position. Crvena zvezda recently celebrated two consecutive EL victories against Lille and FCSB Bucharest. The seven points they have collected in total are currently enough for 22nd place.
Nevertheless, one should refrain from predicting a victory for the Serbs between Sturm Graz and Red Star Belgrade. The fact is that the Red and Whites have earned all seven of their points at home, while losing twice away, albeit narrowly. To make matters worse, Vienna-born Marko Arnautovic is likely to miss the game in his Austrian homeland. The striker, who has scored two Europa League goals so far this season, suffered a muscle injury a week and a half ago. According to media reports, however, a surprise recovery cannot be completely ruled out.
Looking at the results of both clubs so far, I am ultimately leaning towards betting on under 3.5 goals. Why? In all five Europa League games played by the Styrians and those involving Milojevic’s team, a maximum of three goals were scored. In the case of Red Star, under 2.5 goals would have been the case in four out of five games. In ten of the Serbs’ last 13 (!) games, there were a maximum of three goals to marvel at. Sturm Graz also has a rate of 72% – eight of their last eleven competitive games ended with three goals or fewer.
Ahead of the clash between Sturm Graz and Red Star Belgrade, Betano’s odds of 1.60 for under 3.5 goals are therefore very attractive. This is especially true given that the Styrian hosts have scored just 23 goals in 35 Europa League games in their history. The average of 0.66 goals per game is the lowest of any team that has played at least 30 times in this competition. The injury-related absence of youngster Leon Grgic, who will be out until the end of the season, does not increase SK’s offensive threat either.
Sturm Graz – Red Star Belgrade Head-to-head record
This is a first at international level. There has never been a match between Sturm Graz and Red Star Belgrade before. In fact, Crvena zvezda’s last encounter with an Austrian club was almost 50 (!) years ago. Meanwhile, the Blackies are facing a representative from Serbia for the first time. The head-to-head therefore has no influence on my three tips!
Sturm Graz – Red Star Belgrade Tip
Three important points are at stake on Thursday evening in Sturm Graz’s home match against Red Star Belgrade. While it is almost the last chance for the home side to remain in the race for a place in the top 24, the visitors from Serbia could increase their lead over the non-playoff places.
Although Milojevic’s team has won twice in a row in the Europa League recently, betting on an away win is risky in that the Red and Whites have earned all seven of their EL points at home so far and are traditionally not nearly as strong away from home.
In any case, it would probably be smarter to bet on few goals. None of these teams’ league matches have seen more than three goals scored so far. It seems unlikely that this will change in their head-to-head match. Red Star will probably have to do without Arnautovic, while SK has been struggling to find its form for weeks. An offensive spectacle is certainly not to be expected. I am therefore going with the Sturm Graz vs. Red Star Belgrade tip of under 3.5 and am confidently betting seven units at 1.60 with Betano.
