Will the Black Cats extend their home winning streak?
Alongside Arsenal FC, Sunderland AFC is the only one of all 20 Premier League clubs to remain completely unbeaten at home in the 2025/26 season. The newly promoted club’s streak has already lasted seven home games (four wins, three draws). The conditions are therefore favorable for inflicting another defeat on their archrivals in the Tyne-Wear derby.
The Black Cats are currently unbeaten in nine league games against Newcastle United (six wins, three draws). This makes it particularly interesting to bet on Sunderland to score points in the English northeast derby against Newcastle.
However, Nick Woltemade’s Champions League side have shown a clear improvement in form recently. NUFC have won three of their last four PL games (one draw), picking up as many wins in this period as they did in their previous 13 PL games combined (three draws, seven defeats). Nevertheless, we are leaning towards the home side winning a point. As we do not expect a high-scoring match – while Sunderland have conceded only seven goals in seven games at home, Newcastle have scored only seven away goals in as many games on the road – we see the greatest value in the match combo on the double chance 1X with under 3.5 goals.
It is striking that Newcastle United have scored in each of their last eight Premier League games, but have not kept a clean sheet once. However, given the Black Cats’ strong home defense and the Magpies’ occasional lack of punch away from home, we don’t see any positive expected value in such an obvious bet as the tip on goals at both ends. Instead, a conceivable alternative to our suggested match combo would be to bet that the Magpies will score a maximum of one away goal at the Stadium of Light, where they have lost their last three away games.
Sunderland – Newcastle Head-to-head record
Head to head: 53 – 49 – 54
The Tyne-Wear derby between the two biggest clubs in the northeast of England has been played 156 times, with Newcastle United FC leading the head-to-head record by the narrowest of margins with 54 wins. However, the balance has increasingly shifted in favor of the Black Cats. In league play, Sunderland AFC has not lost any of its last nine league games against the Magpies (six wins, three draws), who have also suffered defeat in their last three away games at the Stadium of Light.
Sunderland – Newcastle Tip
The best bookmakers are favoring the Magpies in the Tyne-Wear derby between Sunderland and Newcastle. However, we cannot share this assessment. Not only did NUFC expend a lot more energy due to the double burden of the Champions League, but Woltemade and Co. simply did not perform well away from home despite a slight upturn in form. The Magpies have won only one of seven Premier League away games (three draws, three losses), scoring just seven away goals.
The Black Cats, on the other hand, are the only Premier League club besides leaders Arsenal to remain completely unbeaten at home (four wins, three draws). The promoted team has conceded only seven goals at the Stadium of Light, which is why our prediction for Sunderland vs. Newcastle is a match combo of double chance 1X with under 3.5 goals.
