Will the Swiss national team give Slovenia a chance?

The Swiss national team kicked off their 2026 World Cup qualifying campaign with a convincing 4-0 victory on Friday evening. Nevertheless, only 10,000 tickets have been sold so far for the second match, which will also take place at St. Jakob Park in Basel on Monday evening.

There are several reasons for this, including the fact that Slovenia is a less attractive opponent than Kosovo, as well as the kick-off time of 8:45 p.m. on a normal working day, which is rather inconvenient for employees and families. Regardless of this, however, the goal and ambition of the “Nati” must of course be to ensure that a bet on a home win pays off again in the match between Switzerland and Slovenia.

However, the task will by no means be a walk in the park, as the Slovenians, who reached the last 16 of last year’s European Championship, are traveling to the Joggeli. In their first knockout game, the “Zmajceki” only lost to Portugal on penalties. Coach Matjaz Kek’s team, which has its two biggest stars in goalkeeper Jan Oblak (Atletico Madrid) and Benjamin Sesko (Manchester United), is now aiming for its first World Cup appearance since 2010, even though Group B is certainly one of the toughest qualifying groups.

Against this backdrop, the “Dragons” were not at all dissatisfied with their 2-2 draw against a strong Sweden side in their opening game. This was particularly true because Isak and Co. took the lead twice and the Slovenians only managed to equalize in stoppage time to great acclaim. Basically, however, the world number 50 has blossomed into a team that can make life difficult for any opponent and is usually extremely stable defensively. Just three goals conceded in five international matches in 2025 are a good indication of this and also serve as a veritable argument for the Switzerland vs. Slovenia prediction of a rather low-scoring game.

Ahead of the match between Switzerland and Slovenia, I am therefore checking the odds for under 2.75 goals on the Asian market. If two or fewer goals are scored, the bet will be a complete success. If the ball crosses the goal line exactly three times, the stake will still be returned.

Otherwise, there is a lot to suggest a home win for Yakin’s team, which has had a strong international year so far in 2025, winning three of four matches and scoring a whopping 16 goals. However, in my opinion, Embolo and Co. will find it a little more difficult against Slovenia’s strong defense, so my value bet is that the home team will win by exactly one goal.

Switzerland – Slovenia Head-to-head record

There have been nine meetings between Switzerland and Slovenia, six of which were in European Championship and World Cup qualifiers. Switzerland celebrated three victories, Slovenia two. Overall, the Swiss national team has a relatively clear lead with six wins, one draw, and two defeats.

Also interesting: in three of the last four matches, a bet on under 2.5 goals would have been successful. Just as often, only one team scored. The Switzerland vs. Slovenia betting odds for 1X & under 3.5 are therefore still exciting. The 1.62 offered could be included in combination bets.

Switzerland – Slovenia Tip

In this extremely appealing qualifying group, which includes Switzerland, Slovenia, Sweden, and Kosovo, every direct match is important. However, the first matchday has already shown that the “Nati” probably has the best chance of winning the group. Yakin’s team, which includes many (former) Bundesliga players, won 4-0 against Kosovo and was particularly impressive in the 45 minutes before halftime. Against Slovenia, the men from the Alpine republic will probably have to be a little more patient.

Defensively, the Slovenians are considered to be much more stable and organized. Three goals conceded in five international matches this year underscore this thesis, as do the impressions from Euro 2024, when they kept a clean sheet against Portugal in 120 minutes in the round of 16. In light of the importance of this match, I recommend betting on under 2.75 Asian goals for the Switzerland vs. Slovenia match. I’m betting six units on 1.75.