Will the Spurs improve their home record?
Following a strong start to the season, Tottenham Hotspur are in third place after seven matchdays with 14 out of a possible 21 points, just two points behind leaders Arsenal. However, things have not been going well for the North Londoners at home for some time now, with just three wins in their last 17 Premier League home games (four draws, ten defeats).
Just now, the in-form Villans are coming to Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, having recorded two wins in a row after a somewhat cautious start to the season. This makes betting on a home win for the Lilywhites against Aston Villa a risky proposition.
In fact, since the beginning of March 2025, only Manchester City has won more Premier League games (eleven) than Aston Villa FC (ten), who have also won four of their last six league games against Tottenham (two defeats). Nevertheless, we are clearly leaning towards the resurgent home side, who have been extremely clinical with 13 goals from seven Premier League games, even though their expected goals value was just 7.5. In what is likely to be a high-scoring match, we still expect Frank’s team to pick up a point and therefore recommend the match combo on the double chance 1X with over 1.5 goals.
Meanwhile, the visitors’ scoring prowess should not be underestimated, with their strength from set pieces being their biggest asset. An impressive 25 percent of all shots taken by Aston Villa players in the 2025/26 season came immediately after a corner kick (19 out of 76). This means that the Lions are likely to score a goal in north London, which is why it makes sense to completely ignore the three-way system and bet on over 2.5 goals.
Tottenham – Aston Villa Head-to-head record
Head to head: 79 – 36 – 62
A total of 177 matches have been played between the two teams so far, with Tottenham Hotspur leading the head-to-head record with 79 wins. However, the Lilywhites have lost four of their last six Premier League games against Aston Villa (two wins) – as many defeats as in the previous 29 Premier League encounters (18 wins, seven draws). Curiously, none of the last 20 games between the two teams in the Premier League have ended in a draw – Spurs have won 14 times and the Lions six times.
Tottenham – Aston Villa Tip
After a turbulent 2025/26 season, which saw them win the Europa League but finish in a completely unacceptable 17th place in the Premier League, Spurs seem to be returning to their old form. The North Londoners are currently third and have not lost a competitive game since August (four wins, three draws). Accordingly, the prediction for Tottenham against Aston Villa is that the Lilywhites will be able to improve their recent somewhat meager home record. After all, the capital club has won just three of its last 17 Premier League home games (four draws, ten defeats).
Although none of the last 20 league games between the two teams have ended in a draw, the possibility of a point being shared should not be ruled out. The Villans are difficult to beat and are always good for a goal, especially from set pieces. Accordingly, the combined tip on the double chance 1X with over 1.5 goals makes sense, which also does not rule out a result such as 1:1.
