Will the new Tottenham also impress in the league?
Thomas Frank almost celebrated a perfect debut at Tottenham Hotspur Football Club. Despite a very courageous performance and a 2-0 lead against Champions League winners Paris St. Germain, the Londoners ultimately lost out after conceding two late goals in the penalty shootout of the UEFA Super Cup. Nevertheless, the Europa League champions left a really good impression, which gives hope that last year’s 17th-placed team can once again challenge for the top spots in the Premier League this season.
On the very first matchday, I am convinced that a bet on the Lily Whites will pay off between Tottenham and Burnley. After all, THFC has started a new PL season twice with a home game against a promoted team. Both times, they came away with three points. In addition, none of the last eight Spurs coaches have lost their Premier League debut in England’s top flight (5-3-0).
Apart from that, it has been virtually the norm in recent years for newly promoted teams from the Championship to have a tough time in the top flight. Last season, for example, all three newcomers – Ipswich, Leicester, and Southampton – were immediately relegated, and the same is likely to happen in 2023/24.
Although the Clarets spent over €120 million on new players in the summer, they are facing the same fate. This is especially true given that James Trafford, an absolute guarantee of success, left the club for Manchester City. As goalkeeper, Trafford was responsible for the best defense in the Championship, conceding no more than one goal in 46 (!) league games. In the end, the former U21 national team goalkeeper conceded only 16 goals.
Even in the run-up to the Tottenham vs. Burnley match, my prediction is that these monstrous defensive statistics cannot be maintained in the Premier League. However, a thrashing in the opening game also seems rather unlikely, so a combination of a Spurs win with under 4.5 goals looks promising. Winamax is offering odds of 1.70 for this.
Alternatively, it makes sense to bet on Mohamed Kudus as the goalscorer. The new signing from West Ham United already proved to be a valuable addition to the offense in the Super Cup final. His physicality, combined with good 1-on-1 skills and great finishing, make the 25-year-old Ghanaian a hot recommendation. The 3.00 offered by Interwetten on a Kudus goal is good value in my opinion and is therefore also a case for the Interwetten $10 free bet.
Tottenham – Burnley Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
These clubs have already met 86 times in the top flight on the island. With 35 wins, 31 defeats and ten draws, Tottenham have a slight edge. In the recent past, however, the pendulum has swung even more often in the Londoners’ favor.
For example, Spurs have won eight of their last nine PL home games against Burnley (with one draw). Overall, THFC have won eight of their last ten Premier League games against the Clarets, who also lost both matches against the top club from the capital in their 2023/24 relegation season. If they were to win for the first time since 2021, this would result in high betting odds of up to 9.00 between Tottenham and Burnley.
Tottenham – Burnley Tip
Under Scott Parker, Burnley is a team that defines itself by its defensive strength. 16 goals conceded in 46 (!) second division games are clear proof of this. Nevertheless, I am skeptical as to whether the Clarets can consistently display similar stability in the Premier League.
In any case, the test matches have shown that the positive momentum following promotion has been somewhat lost. The last two games in the preparations, for example, were lost 0-1 without scoring a goal. It is quite possible that the Championship runners-up will have to pay the price in London on Saturday…
In any case, I believe that the home side will start the new season with a win under their new coach Thomas Frank. A performance similar to Wednesday evening’s in the European Super Cup should be enough to bring the Clarets to their knees. A good compromise would therefore be to combine the odds for a home win with a maximum of four goals in the game between Tottenham and Burnley. I’m betting six units!
