The battle for the playoff spot

On Sunday evening, Ukraine and Iceland will face off in Group D. At stake is second place and thus the playoff spot for the last chance to qualify for the 2026 World Cup. Both teams are tied on seven points in the table, with Iceland having a significantly better goal difference of +4 than Ukraine with -3. This means that Iceland would only need one point to secure the important second place.

Ukraine suffered their second defeat against France on Thursday evening, their second defeat overall in World Cup qualifying. Only against the French did the “Sbirna” fail to score. In each of the other three games, they scored in the second half. In our Ukraine vs. Iceland prediction, we therefore predict another goal for the Eastern Europeans after the break.

We already saw a high-scoring game between the two teams in the first leg. The Ukrainian team won the first game against Iceland 5-3 (3-1). Otherwise, the blue and yellows have been less dangerous in front of goal, scoring three goals in the remaining four games, all against Azerbaijan.

The Icelandic national team, on the other hand, is particularly strong in attack. With 13 goals in five qualifying games, they scored as often as the French and did not fail to score a single time. Therefore, the odds for Ukraine against Iceland are surprising in this regard – for two goals by the Vikings, you will receive odds of 4.30 at the bookmaker Bet-at-home. With the exception of the first leg against France (1-2), Arnar Gunnlaugsson’s team scored at least twice in each of the remaining four matches.

In addition, Iceland is the only team in Group D to have scored in every first half. In the first four games, they scored exactly once in each, and in the last group game against Azerbaijan, they even scored twice for the first time. In our prediction for the Ukraine vs. Iceland match, we expect the Icelanders to score again in the first half.

Ukraine – Iceland Head-to-head record / H2H record

So far, the two national teams have met in six competitive games, including matches in the European Championship qualifiers, the World Cup qualifiers, and the European Championship playoffs. Ukraine won three of these games, two ended in a draw, and Iceland won one game. The goal difference also slightly favors the Ukrainians, who scored a total of ten goals and conceded eight. Overall, the head-to-head comparison shows a slight advantage in favor of Ukraine, although most of the matches were closely contested.

Ukraine – Iceland Tip

After their 5-3 win in the first leg, the betting odds for Ukraine vs. Iceland are again favoring a win for the hosts. Ukraine lost its only two qualifying games against France and picked up seven points from the remaining three games. However, Iceland also has seven points, having won two games against Azerbaijan and picked up points at home against France. For both teams, this match is now decisive for the playoff spot in Group D.

Iceland scores mainly on offense and has scored just as many goals as Didier Deschamps’ team. They have scored in the first half of each of their qualifying games and have scored twice in four of their five matches. This puts them in a better position in the table and they could secure second place with a point against Ukraine.