Will BVB cheat their way to another three points?

It has been around nine months since the last Saturday evening Bundesliga match was played at the Alte Försterei. However, memories of April 2025 are still fresh in everyone’s minds, as it was the curious 4-4 draw between Union Berlin and VfB Stuttgart, with all eight goals scored before half-time. This weekend’s Bundesliga matchday 19 fixtures are unlikely to be quite so high-scoring, but there are still compelling arguments for betting on over goals ahead of the clash between Union Berlin and Dortmund.

Both teams are in very good form at the national level. Union Berlin are now unbeaten in five Bundesliga games. In the 2026 calendar year, there have been draws in all three games, with last weekend’s 1-1 draw in Stuttgart showing that coach Steffen Baumgart’s team is currently an extremely difficult and hard-to-beat opponent.

However, the same applies to BVB, who have lost only one of their last 26 matches in the German top flight. This makes it difficult to predict the outcome of the match between Union Berlin and Dortmund on the 1X2 market.

Union Berlin vs. Dortmund Prediction AI

According to the AI tips for the 19th Bundesliga matchday, only one team has a lower xG value this weekend than Union Berlin in their home game against Dortmund: FC Augsburg at FC Bayern Munich. In fact, artificial intelligence sees the Black and Yellows as clear favorites.

This is also underlined by the approximately 50% probability of a BVB win, which, considering maximum odds of up to 2.10 on the visitors’ three points, still offers a little value. For the Union Berlin vs. Dortmund AI prediction, another option is to combine the double chance X2 with under 2.5. The Interwetten app even offers odds of 2.30 for this.

Union Berlin – Statistics & current form

Union Berlin can be absolutely satisfied with their performance so far this season. 24 points from 18 games are currently enough for a solid ninth place. The gap to the international places is five points, which is significantly less than the cushion to the relegation zone. The Ironers can therefore play freely and do everything they can to continue their five-match unbeaten streak.

Union Berlin is always good for a goal

Although Steffen Baumgart’s very pragmatic, risk-averse and at times even destructive style of play was often criticized, especially in his early days at the cult club from the capital, things have taken a turn for the better in recent weeks and months. Above all, the offensive output has improved.

Since the 0-0 home draw against SC Freiburg on November 1 last year, the Ironers have scored at least once in all (!) competitive games. In six of FCU’s last seven Bundesliga matches, a bet on both teams scoring would have paid off. In five of the last eight competitive games, the over 2.5 would also have been correct. I therefore venture to predict that the match between Union Berlin and Dortmund could once again be more goal-rich than many expect.

Dortmund – Statistics & current form

Although it may not feel like it to many fans and neutral spectators, Borussia Dortmund is having its best Bundesliga season in seven years. The 39 points after 18 matchdays were last surpassed in 2018/19 under Lucien Favre. Even more impressive is the fact that BVB has only lost once in the current season, and that was against the undisputed leaders from Munich. In total, there has been only one defeat in the last 26 Bundesliga matches.

Dortmund’s defense has deteriorated significantly

Nevertheless, it cannot be ignored that recent performances have left a few question marks. At the start of the year, they conceded three goals against Eintracht Frankfurt, then were very lucky in their 3-0 home win against Werder Bremen, as the North Germans squandered numerous chances. In the last-minute victory against St. Pauli (3-2) and during the week in London against Tottenham, they conceded two goals in each game. For a long time, defense was the absolute trump card of Kovac’s team, but since October 31, 2025, Borussia has not managed a clean sheet in a single away game in any competition.

Because it must also be taken into account that Saturday evening marks the end of the second consecutive week of two games for the Black and Yellows and the start of the third in a row, there are plenty of arguments in favor of both Union Berlin and Dortmund scoring.

Finally, it is important to note that BVB remains the second-strongest away team in the Bundesliga, but has already squandered ten points after taking the lead over the course of the season, eight of them away from home. Against the comeback kings from Köpenick, they will therefore need to maintain their concentration for the full 90 minutes – something the stars of the second-placed team have rarely managed to do recently.

Union Berlin – Dortmund Head-to-head record

The head-to-head comparison between these two clubs makes for very interesting reading. On the one hand, Union Berlin has lost five of its last six Bundesliga encounters with Borussia Dortmund. On the other hand, BVB has also suffered four defeats in a total of six away games at the Alte Försterei.

Against no other club that Borussia has faced at least five times away from home in the German top flight has it had a higher defeat rate than against the Iron… The first leg at the end of August was a clear 3-0 victory for the Black and Yellows.

Union Berlin – Dortmund Tip

It is not currently known whether Steffen Baumgart and Joaquin Phoenix are brothers in spirit. However, it is a fact that the Union coach and the actor who played the Joker in the film of the same name have a distinct fondness for jokers.

The last six goals scored by Union Berlin were all scored by substitutes, including all four in the 2026 calendar year. Furthermore, as both teams have only conceded three goals in the first half hour, there is every reason to believe that there will be more goals in the second half on Saturday evening.

In any case, I am confident that the spectators at the Alte Försterei will be treated to a few goals. Both teams have scored in six of the last seven FCU matches. Dortmund has not kept a clean sheet away from home since the end of October, while Union has scored in every league game since the beginning of November.

I therefore recommend betting on both teams scoring in the match between Union Berlin and Dortmund.