Will the Rothosen’s offense once again be too lackluster?
After Hamburger SV failed to score or win in their first three Bundesliga matches, the Rothosen finally broke their duck last weekend against 1. FC Heidenheim. For the first time in 2688 days, the North Germans won a Bundesliga match, which they will now look to confirm at the Stadion An der Alten Försterei. However, Union Berlin’s away win against HSV is not looking particularly promising.
Despite a very difficult start to the season, the Ironers have already celebrated two victories, beating two European Cup participants, VfB Stuttgart (2-1) and Eintracht Frankfurt (4-3). However, the Köpenickers have conceded at least one goal in all four league games. When predicting the outcome of Union Berlin vs. HSV, it is also important to note that the capital city club has conceded at least three goals in each of its last three games. Nevertheless, we do not expect a goal fest and instead recommend the match combo on double chance 1X with under 4.5 goals.
It is doubtful that HSV, who have been very lackluster in attack so far and have not scored away from home in the 2025/26 season, will be able to really exploit Köpenick’s defensive vulnerability. The Rothosen have only scored two goals and have ended three of their four league games without scoring. In our opinion, it would therefore even be conceivable to bet on a home win for the Eisernen.
Union Berlin vs. HSV Prediction AI
Did the bookmakers also use the AI lady BETSiE for this game? In any case, almost without exception, all odds are set in such a way that they have a negative expected value according to the probabilities spit out by the supercomputer in its Union Berlin vs. HSV AI prediction. So the top AI recommendation is actually not to place a bet. However, we did find value in one market – albeit not excessively high. But if you apply the Asian handicap of -0.5 to Köpenick, which can be done at Interwetten with odds of 2.00, you will still find a positive expected value. The 2.00 suggests a probability of occurrence of exactly 50 percent. The AI, on the other hand, calculates 51.1 percent for this, which is just within the value range.
Union Berlin – Statistics & current form
Premiere in the upper house with a mixed history: Union and HSV are meeting for the first time in the Bundesliga, and this is only their third competitive match at professional level. In the 2018/19 2. Bundesliga, Union remained unbeaten (2-2 away, 2-0 at home). Under Steffen Baumgart, who now faces his former club, there have already been two defeats against promoted teams in the Bundesliga – the same number as in his first 22 Bundesliga games against promoted teams combined.
In terms of performance, the defense is currently the biggest problem: for the first time, the Köpenickers have conceded at least three goals in three Bundesliga games in a row and, with eleven goals conceded, have the weakest defense in the league. They have never conceded so many goals after four games in a season. They also lack punch in the final quarter of an hour: Union have not scored a single goal in this period, but have already conceded five – the highest number in the league.
Union Berlin must do without Steffen Baumgart
Union has had little possession so far (31 percent), has made the fewest passes in the league (1078) and has the lowest pass completion rate (70 percent). The team presses deep: 20.3 opponent passes outside their own third per defensive action is the highest PPDA value in the league, which is why a home win for Union Berlin against HSV is not a foregone conclusion.
Offensively, individual moments set the tone: Andrej Ilic was the first Union pro to set up three goals in a Bundesliga game – all for Oliver Burke, who tripled his goal tally for the Iron with his hat trick. Ilyas Ansah scored four times in his first four Bundesliga games – only four players on the German side have managed that in the last 45 years. Remarkably, he needed only five shots to score four goals. Meanwhile, Steffen Baumgart is suspended and will not be on the bench. Historically, his defeat rate against HSV is 67 percent (four out of six).
HSV – Statistics & current form
HSV celebrated its first Bundesliga win in 2688 days – the last one was on May 12, 2018 (2-1 against Borussia Mönchengladbach). Hamburg are still looking for their first away win. The Rothosen remain winless on the road this Bundesliga season (one draw, one defeat) and are the only team without an away goal.
Hamburger SV last had three away games without a goal at the start of a Bundesliga season in 2014/15. Back then, they didn’t score their first goal until the fourth game. Union Berlin vs. HSV odds of 3.80 are currently available for the North Germans to claim their first away win, which we found at Bet-at-home.
Will HSV now end their dry spell away from home?
Structurally, two ball-possession teams are facing each other: HSV has 41 percent possession (third lowest in the Bundesliga) and a PPDA of 18.7 (like Heidenheim) – directly behind Union. At the same time, their passing accuracy is solid: 83.1 percent is the eighth best rate in the Bundesliga.
A psychological aspect: Hamburg has a historically positive record against coach Steffen Baumgart – his defeat rate against HSV is 67 percent (four out of six). For the promoted team, the key is therefore to break the deadlock away from home and combine compact phases with better possession play. Then they can get something out of their very first Bundesliga duel with Union.
Union Berlin – HSV Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
Head to head: 1 – 1 – 0
So far, the two teams have only faced each other once in the 2018/19 season in the 2nd Bundesliga. In Köpenick’s promotion season, the first leg in Hamburg ended in a 2-2 draw, before 1. FC Union Berlin won the return leg 2-0 at the Stadion An der Alten Försterei. The Ironers are therefore ahead in the direct comparison.
Union Berlin – HSV Tip
Basically, our prediction for Union Berlin against HSV leans towards the Iron Ones, who, however, showed unusual defensive problems in the 2025/26 season. FCU has already conceded eleven goals – more than ever before after four games in the top flight of German soccer.
However, it is far from certain that Hamburger SV will be able to exploit this vulnerability. After all, the promoted team has only scored two goals and failed to score in three of its first four Bundesliga games, including both away games.
In our opinion, another goal fest involving Berlin is therefore not to be expected. Since we also consider an away win for Hamburg to be unlikely, it makes a lot of sense to place a combined bet on the double chance 1X with under 4.5 goals.
The odds for Union Berlin vs. HSV are 1.50, which we are betting on at Betano with seven out of ten units.
