Will the Iron Ones stop their downward trend?
1. FC Union Berlin has lost three competitive games in a row. While the cup defeat against Bayern was still somewhat acceptable, the defeats against Heidenheim (1-2) and Wolfsburg (1-3) were particularly bitter setbacks, as both teams were in the bottom three of the table at the time of the match. If Union Berlin were to lose again against RB Leipzig, which is entirely possible given the Red Bulls’ current strong form, FCU would have lost four competitive games in a row for the first time under Steffen Baumgart.
However, there is one factor that favors a turnaround for Union Berlin against RB Leipzig. Namely, the floodlights at the An der Alten Försterei stadium. In September 2019, the Köpenick team played their first Friday evening home game in the Bundesliga, which they lost 1-2 to Eintracht Frankfurt. Since then, they have played nine more home games on Friday evenings in the top flight of German soccer, picking up 23 out of a possible 27 points (seven wins, two draws). A good omen? At the very least, RBL not only failed to win the only two Friday evening games under Ole Werner, but also failed to score in either of them.
However, the head-to-head record favors the Saxons, who have not lost in four competitive games against FCU (two wins, two draws) and have kept a clean sheet four times in a row against the Köpenickers. Last season, both encounters in the top flight of German soccer ended in a 0-0 draw, which we would not categorically rule out this time either.
Union Berlin vs. RB Leipzig Prediction AI
Artificial intelligence does not really find value in either the three-way system or in betting on under goals. However, it does find value in betting that a maximum of one team will score, which would have been the case in the last four matches between the two teams and can be played via the practical Bet-at-home app at odds of 2.20. This implies a probability of 45.5 percent. Meanwhile, for Union Berlin vs. RB Leipzig, the AI forecast calculates a 46.7 percent probability that there will be no goals on either side. This is above average and therefore provides a positive expected value.
Union Berlin – Statistics & current form
Fundamentally, 1. FC Union Berlin’s twelfth place in the table going into matchday 14 is a solid result overall. After all, they are far enough away from the relegation zone. However, those in charge are not overly satisfied, as the team has lost three competitive games in a row – including the home game against 16th-placed 1. FC Heidenheim and the recent away game at 15th-placed VfL Wolfsburg.
If Köpenick had earned even two out of six points in these games, they would currently be in eighth place. However, if Union Berlin were to lose their fourth competitive game in a row against RB Leipzig, which would be a first under Steffen Baumgart, the capital city club could theoretically finish matchday 14 in 15th place, which would cause their worries to grow again shortly before the winter break.
Union Berlin and the Friday streak
The team’s strong Friday record is particularly encouraging. After suffering the only Friday home defeat in the club’s Bundesliga history in September 2019, Union has picked up 23 out of a possible 27 points (seven wins, two draws) in nine games at home on this day of the week. The Ironers’ current offensive profile is heavily focused on set pieces: 50 percent of their goals this season have come from set pieces (eight out of 16).
In addition, they have been fundamentally stable in the early stages of games. Berlin have conceded only one goal in the opening quarter of an hour. Things went significantly worse in the second halves. If a table were to be created for the second half only, the Köpenickers would be at the bottom. Their tackling also needs to improve. Only Hoffenheim has committed more fouls (190) than the capital city club (176) in the current Bundesliga season.
RB Leipzig – Statistics & current form
RB Leipzig are not only in the quarterfinals of the DFB Cup, but have also already picked up 29 points from 13 games in the Bundesliga. That is the second-best haul for the Red Bulls in their still short club history at this stage. The mood among Ole Werner’s Saxons is correspondingly good at the moment, having beaten Eintracht Frankfurt 6-0 at their home ground, the Red Bull Arena, last weekend and thus remaining without conceding a goal for the third Bundesliga game in a row.
However, the Saxons always start sharply and remain structured, as evidenced by six goals in the opening quarter of an hour. At the same time, they are the only team not to have conceded a goal in the first 15 minutes. It is therefore interesting to note the odds for Union Berlin vs. RB Leipzig that RBL will score the first goal of the game.
RB Leipzig remains focused defensively until the end
A big plus point for the away trip to the Stadion An der Alten Försterei is the strong defensive performance against set pieces, which is one of Köpenick’s great strengths. The Saxons have conceded only two goals from set pieces – the lowest in the league. Overall, Werner’s team hardly ever breaks down. In the second half, Leipzig conceded only six goals.
Despite the restructured squad, several RBL players are once again standing out individually in 2025/26. Yan Diomande, for example, has just become the second-youngest player in Bundesliga history to score a hat trick at the age of 19 years and 22 days. Christoph Baumgartner has recently contributed to three goals and now has eleven points (six goals, five assists), the fourth-best total in the Bundesliga behind Harry Kane (20), Michael Olise (14), and Luis Díaz (13).
Union Berlin – RB Leipzig Head-to-head record
Head to head: 6 – 3 – 8
A total of 17 competitive matches have been played between the two teams so far, with RB Leipzig leading the head-to-head record with eight wins. The Saxons have recently gained the upper hand in this duel. After Köpenick won five Bundesliga games in a row against the Red Bulls, RBL remained unbeaten against the capital city team for the last four games (two wins, two draws) and kept a clean sheet every time. Last season, neither the first nor the second leg produced any goals, with both games ending 0-0.
Union Berlin – RB Leipzig Tip
Although a Friday night floodlit game at the Stadion An der Alten Försterei certainly has its charm and Union Berlin have lost only one of their ten Bundesliga home games on this day of the week in their club history (seven wins, two draws), our prediction for Union Berlin vs. RB Leipzig leans toward the in-form Saxons, who rolled over Champions League participants Eintracht Frankfurt 6-0 last weekend.
The Red Bulls like to start like a house on fire and have already scored six goals in the opening quarter of an hour – the highest in the league. It is therefore interesting to note that the Betano app is offering odds of 1.70 on the Saxons scoring the first goal in this match, regardless of the final result.
However, we would not expect this to be a particularly high-scoring match. Compact defensive soccer is ingrained in the DNA of the Köpenick team. Standing strong at the back and relying on set pieces up front – that’s the motto of the Iron Men under Steffen Baumgart. Many eventualities, including a possible third 0-0 draw in a row, can be covered by the combined tip on double chance X2 with under 3.5 goals.
