Will the Swabians avoid another opening defeat?

VfB Stuttgart has lost seven of its last eleven Bundesliga opening games (two wins, two draws). Since the start of the 2012/13 season, only FC Augsburg has suffered more defeats on the first matchday of a season (nine). When the Swabians had an away game to contend with, they have won just one of their last 14 opening games. This makes it interesting to bet on Union Berlin against VfB Stuttgart, with the Köpenickers likely to score at home.

In fact, the Eisernen have not lost their opening Bundesliga game in any of the last four seasons (two wins, two draws). The capital club are also in good form, having lost only one of their last ten Bundesliga games (four wins, five draws). Since the start of the 25th matchday, no other Bundesliga club has lost less often than FCU, which is why a prediction of an away win for the favored Swabians in Union Berlin vs. VfB Stuttgart comes with high risks. We are therefore opting for tips on a high-scoring opening game.

The Köpenickers are certainly known for their defensive stability. VfB Stuttgart, on the other hand, have a high degree of offensive power and, after a long struggle, now seem set to start the 2025/26 season with Nick Woltemade. The striker, who was courted by Bayern Munich, already played the full 90 minutes against the Bavarians in the Super Cup, but was unable to get on the scoresheet in the 1-2 defeat.

If he scores at the Stadion An der Alten Försterei, odds of 2.32 could be snapped up on the Betano app for Union Berlin against VfB Stuttgart. In our opinion, however, the safest bet is that there will be over 2.5 goals.

Union Berlin vs. VfB Stuttgart prediction AI

While we expect a high-scoring game, which is also confirmed by the best bookmakers, with odds for over goals and goals on both sides well below the 2.00 mark, supercomputer BETSiE takes a cool and rational view of the matter and finds the greatest value in betting that a maximum of one team will score.

The odds of 2.36 offered by the NEO.bet app imply a probability of 42.4 percent. In contrast, the AI prediction for Union Berlin vs. VfB Stuttgart is that there is a 49.6 percent probability that a maximum of one team will score. That is more than seven percent above the odds and therefore promises a very positive expected value.

Union Berlin – Statistics & current form

Union brings stability: In their last ten Bundesliga games, they have only lost once (four wins, five draws), after previously suffering three defeats in a row. The Ironers also have a good start to the season – they have not lost their opening game in any of the last four Bundesliga seasons (two wins, two draws). If Union Berlin wins against VfB Stuttgart, it would be the 50th Bundesliga home win in the club’s history.

At the same time, their recent home performances serve as a warning: they have not won any of their last three Bundesliga home games (two draws, one defeat), conceding nine goals in the process – four of them in a spectacular 4-4 draw against Stuttgart in April, when both teams set a Bundesliga record with eight goals before half-time (Union’s first four goals in a Bundesliga half).

Union Berlin on a dry spell against VfB Stuttgart

Andrej Ilic was Union’s top scorer in the second half of the season with seven goals, and his loan was made permanent in the summer. He scored his first Bundesliga brace in the 4-4 draw against Stuttgart. Wooyeong Jeong (previously on loan from VfB) has also been signed permanently: he scored three goals and provided two assists last season, and he has scored more points against VfB than against any other club in the top flight (three goals, one assist).

The starting position is clear: Union are in good form, traditionally start strongly, but need to tighten up defensively to smooth out their slight dip at home and break the trend. The capital club are currently waiting for another win against Stuttgart in the Bundesliga after four games (one draw, three defeats)…

VfB Stuttgart – Statistics & current form

VfB are traveling with momentum: three Bundesliga wins in a row – as many as in their first 14 games of the 2024/25 second half of the season combined. Only Borussia Dortmund has been on the road longer (five). The head-to-head record also favors Stuttgart recently: four Bundesliga games in a row unbeaten against Union (three wins, one draw). The aforementioned 4-4 draw in April was a spectacle with a Bundesliga record – eight goals before half-time.

However, caution is always advised at the start of the season: Seven defeats in the last eleven Bundesliga season starts (two wins, two draws) and only one win in the first away game of a Bundesliga season in the last 14 seasons (2020/21 in Mainz) suggest that the odds for tip 2 should be treated with caution when Union Berlin face VfB Stuttgart. Bet365 offers odds of 2.15 for an away win for the White and Reds and is offering all new customers a Bet365 bonus of up to €100 in betting credits.

Will Nick Woltemade score for VfB Stuttgart?

There is a good reason why Nick Woltemade was not allowed to move to Bayern despite heavy interest. He underlines Stuttgart’s attacking presence: 9.8 penalty area actions per 90 minutes in the last Bundesliga season – the best in the league. He also scored in three consecutive league games for the first time recently.

On the sidelines, Sebastian Hoeneß provides record-breaking stability: 76 Bundesliga games with his current club (the highest number among active Bundesliga coaches) and an average of 1.79 points per game – the best record in VfB history. Hoeneß is unbeaten in four games against Union coach Steffen Baumgart (three wins, one draw). This is compounded by the opportunity of the hour: Union have not won any of their last three Bundesliga home games, conceding nine goals in the process – a window that Stuttgart’s in-form attack will be looking to exploit.

Union Berlin – VfB Stuttgart Head-to-head record

Head to head: 3 – 7 – 5

A total of 15 matches have been played between the two teams so far, with VfB Stuttgart leading the head-to-head record with just five wins, while almost half of all matches (seven out of 15) ended in a draw. The most recent match was the much-discussed 4–4 draw in April 2024.

Union Berlin – VfB Stuttgart Prediction

The betting odds for Union Berlin against VfB Stuttgart are leaning towards the visitors. However, history does not bode well for the reigning cup winners, who have only won once in their last 14 Bundesliga seasons when they played away on the first matchday – a 4-1 win in Mainz in 2020. In addition, Union Berlin have lost only one of their last ten league games (four wins, five draws) and showed good early form with a comfortable 5-0 win at FC Gütersloh in the DFB Cup, after failing to score in four previous friendly matches, albeit against lower-league teams Fürth and Schweinfurt.

However, it is not yet entirely clear where both teams stand, which is why we would not make a prediction on the outcome of the match between Union Berlin and VfB Stuttgart. Instead, we believe it makes sense to bet on a high-scoring first league game.

We recommend betting on at least three goals being scored at the An der Alten Försterei stadium, which we are backing at Interwetten at odds of 1.63 with five out of ten units.