Will Werder Bremen secure three crucial points in the race for the top flight?
On Monday, 1.FC Union and SV Werder Bremen will wrap up Matchday 21 of the Women’s Bundesliga. At first glance, the roles seem clearly defined: while the hosts are still fighting for a spot in the Champions League, the visiting team is aimlessly wandering around the middle of the table.
However, if we look at the bookmakers’ Union Berlin vs. Werder Bremen Women odds, a somewhat surprising and completely different picture emerges. The highest odds for a home win are 2.45, which is lower than the best odds for an away win.
In our Union Berlin vs. Werder Bremen Women’s prediction, we’ll now examine why the bookmakers have leaned against a win by the supposed favorite. To do so, we’ll first look at the home and away records of both teams. But that doesn’t really tell us much, because with only twelve points from ten home games, the Berliners aren’t particularly strong at home.
Of course, one could argue that the visiting team has only managed to collect eleven points on the road, but that doesn’t make the hosts favorites by any means. Furthermore, Friederike Kromp’s team has played only nine away games in the Women’s Bundesliga so far—one fewer than the home side has played in their own stadium.
Home-field advantage should therefore play only a minor role in this matchup, but what about the teams’ form? Very similar, because with just three wins in their last ten competitive matches, Ailien Poese’s team isn’t in a position to pose a real threat to an opponent that is clearly stronger on an individual level.
Furthermore, those three wins came only against teams like Jena, Nuremberg, and Cologne. While the Green-Whites have also won only two of their last ten games, they did defeat Leverkusen (6th) and, most recently, Eintracht Frankfurt (3rd). Moreover, they have lost only two games, so the Union Berlin vs. Werder Bremen Women prediction almost inevitably points to the visitors earning a point. So the odds distribution isn’t really understandable yet.
Union Berlin – Werder Bremen Women Head-to-Head Comparison / H2H Record
But before we settle on a prediction, let’s first take a look at the head-to-head record between the two teams. At this point, at the very latest, we have to question the bookmakers’ assessment, because so far, the Berlin women have never managed to take home any points against SVW. To be precise, the hosts have lost five out of five matches, conceding 28 (!) goals in the process.
With only three goals scored, Ailien Poese’s team has lost by an average margin of 0.6 to 5.6. For us, this is yet another reason why we can’t quite understand the Union Berlin vs. Werder Bremen Women betting odds. We don’t see any realistic chance of a win for the home team.
Union Berlin – Werder Bremen Women Prediction
Taking all the above facts into account, we have decided on a Union Berlin vs. Werder Bremen Women betting tip for the visiting team to earn a point. Friederike Kromp’s team has better individual talent and is even still in contention for a Champions League spot this season. In addition, the visitors are in slightly better form and have lost only two of their last 13 competitive matches. By comparison, the hosts have suffered six defeats over the same period. Furthermore, home advantage plays hardly any role, as ninth place in the home standings is definitely nothing to write home about. When we factor in the head-to-head record, the Berliners will pick up a point at most.
Alternatively, you can also add the Union Berlin vs. Werder Bremen Women odds for “both teams to score – yes” to your betting slip. At home, Ailien Poese’s team has already scored 16 goals, averaging 1.6 goals per game. At the same time, however, the Berliners have also conceded 16 goals, making a “clean sheet” highly unlikely. Added to this are the visiting team’s slight defensive issues, as Friederike Kromp’s side has conceded 17 goals in nine away games, rarely keeping a clean sheet.
