Decisive game for Arbeloa?
Although Real Madrid has won its last six league games in a row and is just one point behind leaders FC Barcelona, there is still trouble brewing at the club. Even under Alonso’s successor, Alvaro Arbeloa, there seems to have been a huge row. There has been talk of a dressing room dispute in recent days. Rumor has it that talks have already taken place between Florentino Perez and Jürgen Klopp.
All of this naturally casts a shadow over our tip for Valencia vs. Real Madrid, as it is unclear whether Alvaro Arbeloa has really lost his place in the dressing room so quickly and what consequences this could have for the Blancos’ away game on the east coast.
What is clear, in any case, is that Valencia CF desperately needs the points. The Blanquinegros are in a relegation battle and, in 17th place, are only one point ahead of the first relegation spot. And yet, things have not been going too badly for the Murciélagos (English: the bats), at least at home. At their home ground, Mestalla, they have lost only two of their eleven La Liga games in the 2025/26 season (four wins, five draws) and conceded only eleven goals. A very interesting approach to the Valencia vs. Real Madrid prediction is therefore to rule nothing out and, regardless of the outcome of the game, bet on the Madrid team scoring a maximum of two away goals. In their last eleven league games, the Merengues have only scored more than two goals twice.
Defensively, things haven’t always gone too well for the Galacticos either. The Blancos have kept a clean sheet only twice in their last 13 competitive games across all competitions. Against this backdrop, we definitely believe the Murciélagos are capable of scoring at home. Whether that will be enough to earn a point, which could potentially break Alvaro Arbeloa’s neck, is speculative. However, because Betano is offering odds of 2.52 for a double chance 1X in Valencia vs. Real Madrid, value is already given if the Royals are given a less than 60 percent chance of winning, which we believe is definitely the case.
Risk-taking bettors can therefore play the double chance with a positive expected value and don’t even have to use their own money to do so.
Valencia – Real Madrid Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
Head to head: 59 – 44 – 111
A total of 214 matches have already taken place between the two teams, with Real Madrid leading the head-to-head record very clearly with 111 wins. The Merengues also won the first leg 4–0 at home on November 1, 2025, but have lost two of their last six competitive games against Valencia CF (three wins, one draw).
Valencia – Real Madrid Tip
Despite the defeat at Benfica Lisbon, which means two additional Champions League playoff games in February, and the embarrassing Copa del Rey exit at Albacete, the Blancos are currently only one point behind FC Barcelona in La Liga. Despite all the negative headlines, when betting on Valencia vs. Real Madrid, it should not be forgotten that Los Blancos have won their last six league games and are not in such bad form as is often portrayed due to the enormous expectations placed on a world-class club of this size.
Nevertheless, if Arbeloa has really lost his place in the team, a slip-up on the east coast of Spain cannot be ruled out, especially as the Merengues have lost two of their last six competitive games against the Blanquinegros (three wins, one draw).
In addition, despite their relegation worries, the eastern Spaniards are a very strong home team. Only two of their eleven La Liga home games ended in defeat, with only eleven goals conceded at home, averaging just one goal per game at Mestalla.
We therefore find the best value in betting that the Blancos will score a maximum of two away goals, regardless of the outcome of the match.
For under 2.5 goals by the Royals, Betano is offering odds of 1.50 for Valencia vs. Real Madrid, which we are betting on with seven out of ten units.
