Deniz Undav and his heated battle for a starting spot
A role discussion, chants from the crowd, the winning goal, and then a public rebuke from the national team coach – Deniz Undav has definitely had some eventful days with the German national soccer team. First, the fan favorite was told that he is only the third option at the striker position behind Havertz & Woltemade. However, the 29-year-old then made a case for himself with his goal to make it 2-1 against Ghana, only to be quickly brought back down to earth by Julian Nagelsmann.
This weekend, Undav returns to his comfort zone at VfB Stuttgart and to the Bundesliga. In VfB Stuttgart’s home match against Dortmund, betting on Undav as a goalscorer is once again one of my three suggested betting options!
Generally speaking, the in-form Swabians are capable of quite a lot at home. VfB has lost only one of its last 14 Bundesliga matches, is traditionally one of the league’s best home teams, and also boasts a remarkable record against BVB. The Stuttgart players will especially fondly recall their last home game of the previous season, as they won that match in spectacular fashion, 5-1. I also see strong arguments in favor of Hoeneß’s team for the return match. However, a VfB Stuttgart vs. Dortmund prediction on over goals and a high-scoring spectacle is equally plausible.
While the home side aims to defend its third-place position with a win, the visitors can also play freely for the victory. Cautious skirmishes in midfield or a reactive approach from either club therefore seems rather unlikely. Consequently, ahead of the VfB Stuttgart vs. Dortmund match, I’m primarily checking the odds on there being plenty of goals.
VfB Stuttgart vs. Dortmund AI Prediction
Artificial intelligence is struggling to pick a favorite for this top-of-the-table clash on Matchday 28 of the Bundesliga. This becomes clear quickly when looking at the xG values. A value of 1.66 for VfB is offset by a 1.69 in favor of BVB. Among other things, this also results in a slightly higher probability of an away win. However, because the bookmakers see the hosts as favorites based on the odds distribution, the value in the VfB Stuttgart vs. Dortmund AI prediction lies with the away win.
VfB Stuttgart – Statistics & Current Form
With 53 points, VfB Stuttgart is having the second-best Bundesliga season in the club’s history. Only in 2023/24, when they celebrated a surprise second-place finish, did the Swabians have more points on the board with seven matchdays remaining. Given this remarkable haul and their recent consistent form, there is every reason to believe that coach Sebastian Hoeneß’s team will return to the Champions League stage next season.
VfB Stuttgart is a force to be reckoned with at home in the Bundesliga
Their home form is undoubtedly worth highlighting. They have earned 32 points in 13 matches in front of their own fans. That translates to ten wins, just two draws, and one loss at the MHPArena. In the Bundesliga, Undav and Co. recently celebrated five consecutive home wins. Since Stuttgart also showed strong form before the international break with a 5-2 win in Augsburg and generally scored at least three goals (!) in four of their last six Bundesliga matches, some exciting betting recommendations can be identified.
Another option to consider, as mentioned at the start, is betting on Undav to score. Undav has scored in six consecutive Bundesliga matches. Previously, only Fredi Bobic and Sasa Kalajdzic managed to score at least one goal in seven straight Bundesliga games. Undav is in top form, so I’ve even found subjective value in him as a goalscorer at 2.25.
Dortmund – Statistics & Current Form
Not only VfB Stuttgart, but also Borussia Dortmund has had a formidable season in the Bundesliga so far. Last year’s fourth-place finisher already has 61 points to its name—more than at this point in any of the past seven seasons. In the three-point era, only once in the German top flight has a second-place team managed to accumulate more points seven matchdays before the end of the season than BVB did in 2025/26.
Dortmund brings a lot of firepower
Nevertheless, a slight slump has set in recently, which—given the team’s position in the league and their elimination from the UEFA Champions League—can even be considered understandable. Although these lapses in concentration haven’t yet affected the results, the first half against HSV in particular showed that betting on Borussia Dortmund currently involves a bit more risk than it did about a month ago.
I am therefore cautious and consider it far more sensible to focus on over goals. BVB has averaged 3.08 goals per away game this season. In seven of Borussia’s last eight away games, both teams have scored. Incidentally, Dortmund themselves have scored in 35 (!) consecutive Bundesliga matches. In 13 league games in a row, Niko Kovac has even had reason to celebrate twice or more. All of these factors lead me to expect a lively Saturday evening in the “Autostadt.”
VfB Stuttgart – Dortmund Head-to-Head Record
Under Sebastian Hoeneß, VfB Stuttgart has played seven competitive matches against Borussia Dortmund so far and has not lost a single one. With five wins and two draws from these last seven encounters, the Swabians clearly lead the H2H record. One of the two draws came in the first leg, when the top teams parted ways with a 3-3 tie at Signal Iduna Park. Deniz Undav scored a hat trick for Stuttgart!
The most recent home matches have been even more successful from Stuttgart’s perspective. In 2024, they won 5-1; in December 2023, they won 2-0 in the DFB Cup; and just a few weeks earlier, they won 2-1 in the league. I therefore don’t really believe this unbeaten streak will end on Saturday night.
VfB Stuttgart – Dortmund Prediction
An absolute top-tier match awaits us on Saturday evening at the MHPArena in Stuttgart. The third-place team from the south of the country faces the designated runner-up, who, despite a dip in form, has recently managed to secure three consecutive wins. Overall, both clubs are in good form and have every intention of playing to win. This points just as much toward a high-scoring match as the fact that both VfB and BVB boast many talented individual players. Defensively, however, both teams have struggled recently. On top of that, their most recent head-to-head matches have often featured plenty of goals.
Since a three-way bet involves too much risk in my opinion, I ultimately decided on the Asian Over 3 Goals bet for VfB Stuttgart vs. Dortmund. In other words: if exactly three goals are scored, there’s a cashback.
