How many more wins will the promoted team secure?
The Hanseatic side needs just one more point – then Merlin Polzin and his team will have accumulated as many points in the second half of the season as they did in the first. However, we consider the chances of earning a point in the VfB Stuttgart vs. HSV tip to be relatively low.
Another option is to examine the VfB Stuttgart – HSV betting odds for suitable match combinations. Generally speaking, Sebastian Hoeneß’s squad is among the strongest home teams in the Bundesliga. Last weekend’s 0-2 home loss to Borussia Dortmund was more of an exception.
Under Sebastian Hoeneß, the fourth-place team has lost only once in two consecutive home games. The upcoming match against a club from northern Germany—which is considered rather weak on the road—is a manageable task for a Champions League contender.
Away from their Volkspark Stadium, the Rothosen have won only two of 13 matches since their return to the Bundesliga (4 draws, 7 losses). At best, we expect Hamburger SV to secure a draw this coming weekend. That would cement their status as the draw kings of the German top flight.
VfB Stuttgart vs. HSV AI Prediction
In its VfB Stuttgart – HSV AI prediction, our artificial intelligence is just as confident in a home win as the bookmakers. Additionally, the calculated value for the total number of goals in this matchup is 3.33. To arrive at this, the AI ran more than 20,000 simulations and took various factors into account, such as expected goals and more. A combination of “VfB Stuttgart win” and “Over 2.5 goals” is a suitable alternative to our VfB Stuttgart vs. HSV prediction.
VfB Stuttgart – Stats & Current Form
They play best at home. The Swabians are noticeably more alert in their own stadium, a touch sharper in their actions. While VfB has averaged 2.29 points per home game this season at the MHP Arena Stuttgart, the rate in away games is 1.50 points per match.
The difference in defense is stark. At home, Hoeneß’s squad has conceded just 14 goals in 14 Bundesliga home games so far. Aside from Bayern and Dortmund (0.93 each), no other Bundesliga team has allowed fewer goals per home game than the fourth-place side (1.00).
The Swabians have kept a clean sheet in seven of their ten home matches. The Champions League contender has also won six of those seven home games without conceding a goal. In our VfB Stuttgart vs. HSV prediction, the odds of another home win without conceding a goal are quite high.
The best defense of the second half of the season
Last weekend, the Swabians suffered an unnecessary loss due to two late goals in stoppage time (0-2). Otherwise, they would have added another clean sheet to their collection against the most successful team of the second half of the season (Dortmund: 28 points).
Apart from BVB, only the German record champions from Munich (26) have earned more points in the second half of the season than VfB (21). The Stuttgart team kept a clean sheet in the second half of the season, performing slightly better than the FCB defense (14). Together with Dortmund (13 each), Hoeneß’s squad conceded the fewest goals in the second half of the season.
The development under Sebastian Hoeneß toward a club that is once again regularly competing for Champions League qualification is remarkable. The 43-year-old celebrated his three-year anniversary just on the final matchday and, after 144 competitive matches as VfB coach, averages 1.84 points.
HSV – Statistics & Current Form
Since mid-February, the Bundesliga returnee has held its ground in the middle of the table and successfully defended a six-point cushion over the relegation spot. While the northerners have barely managed any wins in the second half of the season (3), six draws have consistently added important points to their tally.
However, the Hanseatic side’s attacking play remains a work in progress this season. This has been even more evident on the road than at their home ground, the Volkspark Stadium. On average, Polzin’s squad has scored just 0.85 goals per away game.
The promoted side returned from 38 percent of their away trips without having scored a goal. This experience threatens to repeat itself in Swabia for the second-weakest expected offense of this Bundesliga season (43.72 xG). A point is particularly within reach if the defense performs well.
Repeat please
When the Hanseatic fans discuss this year’s Bundesliga matchups for their favorite team, the first leg against VfB is likely to be a popular topic. At the end of November last year, Fabio Viera scored in stoppage time during a counterattack while his team was down a man, securing a 2-1 victory for the Rothosen.
The other goal scorer in the first leg was Robert Glatzel. Although he rarely started, when he did, he delivered. The forward collected every one of his scoring points in a match where he was allowed to start.
The best opportunities for the North Germans come on the counterattack against VfB. Merlin Polzin has already celebrated a goal after just ten successful counterattacks by his team—a league-high. Stuttgart, in contrast, conceded nine counterattack goals in the first 28 matchdays.
VfB Stuttgart – HSV Head-to-Head Record
Compared to the first-half clash, the main change is the venue. Stuttgart will host the Rothosen at the MHP Arena Stuttgart. At home, the Swabians haven’t lost to the former Bundesliga powerhouse in six competitive matches (5W, 1D).
VfB Stuttgart – HSV Prediction
Clean and intense tackling is particularly important to both coaches and is practiced by both teams. Stuttgart has the best tackle success rate in the league (53 percent of duels won). The promoted side ranks fourth with a rate of 52 percent.
Both clubs will be just as intense on the field this coming weekend as they were in the first half of the season. However, in recent weeks, the Hanseatic side has repeatedly shown phases where their power no longer matched the energy levels of previous months.
Stuttgart, on the other hand, is still fighting for qualification to the Champions League and is the third-best team in the second half of the season. Furthermore, Hoeneß’s team boasts the fourth-best expected defensive performance in the league (39.31 xGA), performing at a particularly high level in their home stadium. Accordingly, it comes as little surprise that the bookmakers’ odds are clearly stacked in favor of VfB Stuttgart over HSV.
