VfB still unbeaten at home
In the last game of matchday 8 on Sunday evening, VfB Stuttgart will face Mainz 05 at the MHP Arena. Both teams were in European action during the week: Stuttgart lost 1-0 to Fenerbahce Istanbul in the Europa League, while Mainz secured a 1-0 win against Zrinjski Mostar in the UEL.
In the league, their form couldn’t be more different: while VfB have won their last four games in a row, Mainz have lost their last three. As a result, Stuttgart are third in the table, while Mainz are only 16th. It’s therefore no surprise that VfB Stuttgart are the favorites to win against Mainz.
Stuttgart are in fantastic form and have won their last two Bundesliga games without conceding a goal. The Cannstatters are particularly untouchable at home – they have won all four competitive games, and all three Bundesliga games without conceding a goal. It is therefore only logical that our prediction for the VfB Stuttgart vs. Mainz match is another home win.
Mainz, on the other hand, seem to have yet to find their rhythm this season. The only positive is that the four points they have collected in the Bundesliga so far have all been earned away from home, which is a small consolation. Most recently, however, they suffered a 4-0 defeat against Hamburger SV, which raised doubts about the squad planning in particular. In their current form, we predict that Mainz will once again fail to score against a strong Stuttgart side at home. You can place this bet on VfB Stuttgart vs. Mainz odds of 2.90 at Interwetten.
VfB Stuttgart vs. Mainz Prediction AI
Basically, our AI agrees with the bookmakers’ odds and gives the hosts from Stuttgart a 56% chance of winning at home. It also expects three goals in the game – but the probability of fewer goals being scored is calculated at 51.1%. So if you want to take a bit of a risk and bet on “under 2.5 goals” at Interwetten based on the VfB Stuttgart vs. Mainz AI prediction, there would be clear value here! The bookmaker is offering odds of 2.35 for this tip, which corresponds to a probability of 42.5%. Since Stuttgart has not scored more than two goals in any Bundesliga home game so far, this tip could prove to be worthwhile.
VfB Stuttgart – Statistics & current form
VfB Stuttgart are in impressive form and, with 15 points from their first seven games, are enjoying their second-best Bundesliga season since winning the championship in 2006/07 – only in 2023/24 did they have more points at this stage (18). The Swabians have recently celebrated four Bundesliga wins in a row, something they had only previously achieved under Sebastian Hoeneß in September/October 2023, when they won six games in a row.
Their home form is particularly impressive: Stuttgart have won their last four Bundesliga home games without conceding a goal. Should they now achieve another victory, it would equal the club record from the 2006/07 championship season. In addition, VfB has started a Bundesliga season with three home wins without conceding a goal for the first time since 1991/92 – back then, the season also ended with the title.
Stuttgart at the top of Europe
VfB’s defense has been impressive across the board: Stuttgart is the only club in Europe’s top five leagues that has not conceded a goal at home this season. With three clean sheets at home, they have already matched their total from the entire 2024/25 season. No other Bundesliga club is currently defending set pieces as consistently – Hoeneß’s team is the only one yet to concede a goal from a corner or free kick. In our VfB Stuttgart vs. Mainz prediction, we are tipping another clean sheet for VfB.
There are also positive highlights on an individual level: Midfield dynamo Angelo Stiller was directly involved in two of the three goals in the 3-0 win in Wolfsburg and already has eight assists in 2025 – only Dortmund’s Pascal Groß (nine) and Bayern’s Michael Olise (twelve) are ahead of him. In addition, Stiller has already played the penultimate pass before a shot on goal eleven times this Bundesliga season, surpassed only by Olise (eighteen).
Although Stuttgart remained winless in both Bundesliga matches against Mainz in the 2024/25 season (3-3 at home, 0-2 away) – for the first time since 2018/19 – but overall, the Swabians are unbeaten in their last five home games against Mainz (three wins, two draws). Among the current Bundesliga teams, VfB are only unbeaten at home for longer against Augsburg.
Mainz – Statistics & current form
1. FSV Mainz 05, on the other hand, is going through a difficult phase. After seven games, they have only four points to their name – only in 2020/21 (one point) and 2023/24 (two) did they have fewer at this stage. Most recently, they suffered three consecutive Bundesliga defeats for the first time since September 2023, which is also a first under coach Bo Henriksen. In our VfB Stuttgart vs. Mainz betting tip, we are betting on a fourth consecutive defeat.
Mainz has major problems defensively: since their 2-0 win against St. Pauli in February, they have not managed a single game without conceding a goal in the Bundesliga. The Rheinhessen side has now gone 18 league games without a clean sheet – a new club record and currently the longest ongoing streak in the Bundesliga. In contrast, Stuttgart has kept four clean sheets this season and is one of the best defensive teams in the league.
Amiri as a source of hope
There are also problems in attack: Mainz have only had 21 shots on goal so far – the lowest number of any team – and also have the worst shooting accuracy in the league at 36 percent. In addition, FSV are the only Bundesliga team not to have scored a goal from a set piece.
One ray of hope remains Nadiem Amiri, who shone with a goal and an assist in the 3-4 defeat to Bayer Leverkusen – for the second time for Mainz in a Bundesliga game. With 76 passes into the attacking third, he ranks second among all midfielders in the league behind Bayern star Joshua Kimmich (91). You can secure odds of 5.00 for another goal from the midfield dynamo in the VfB Stuttgart vs. Mainz match in the Bet365 app.
VfB Stuttgart – Mainz Head-to-head record
In a direct comparison between VfB Stuttgart and 1. FSV Mainz 05, the two teams have faced each other 39 times so far. The Swabians have celebrated 17 victories, while Mainz has recorded 13 wins; nine duels ended in a draw. The goal difference is slightly in favor of VfB Stuttgart at 66:57. The two clubs have met in various competitions, including 34 times in the Bundesliga, twice in the 2. Bundesliga, and twice in the DFB Cup.
VfB Stuttgart – Mainz Tip
VfB Stuttgart are the clear favorites going into the match against FSV Mainz 05. The Swabians have won their last four Bundesliga games in a row, all four of their home games – including three Bundesliga home games without conceding a goal. None of their home league games have seen more than two goals scored. They are also strong in direct matches against FSV and have been unbeaten in five home games. If, despite all these facts, you are inclined to believe in a surprise victory for Mainz, the bookmakers are offering VfB Stuttgart vs. Mainz betting odds of 4.50.
The Rheinhessen are currently performing anything but well in the Bundesliga, losing their last three league games in a row – a first under Henriksen. In addition, the defense does not seem to be up to scratch: Mainz have been waiting for a clean sheet for 18 league games. The only small hope for Henriksen’s team is that all four points in the Bundesliga have been won away from home so far. However, the statistics are overwhelming and anything other than a home win for VfB would be nothing short of a miracle.
