Is VfB unstoppable again?
A perfect start to the year for VfB Stuttgart! After their surprise win against their nemesis Leverkusen and the subsequent home win against Frankfurt, Sebastian Hoeneß’s team is facing its second Bundesliga home game in just a few days. Just like during the week against Eintracht Frankfurt, the Swabians are once again the clear favorites with the bookmakers in a VfB Stuttgart vs. Union Berlin tip.
And indeed, we can find few arguments against another VfB victory. The Swabian express is rolling, and almost all of the last direct duels against the Iron Ones have gone to the Red and Whites without exception. In the upcoming match, our VfB Stuttgart vs. Union Berlin prediction is therefore once again leaning toward a home win.
Despite Stuttgart’s outstanding offense, the Swabians’ home games in the Bundesliga so far have mostly not been goal-festivals. The goal difference after eight Stuttgart home games is 12:10, which says a lot about the course of the games at the MHP Arena.
VfB Stuttgart vs. Union Berlin prediction AI
The VfB Stuttgart vs. Union Berlin AI prediction is not quite as convinced of a home win for the Swabians as the bookmakers. While our odds found at Merkur Sports show a 59.5% probability of victory, the AI calculates a probability of victory of only 54.1%. According to artificial intelligence, the value therefore lies more in betting on an unbeaten game for the Köpenick team.
Our assessment that few goals will be scored this coming Sunday is more in line with the VfB Stuttgart vs. Union Berlin AI prediction. While the hosts have an xG value of 1.63, AI also believes the visitors are likely to score with an xG value of 0.94. For a bet on under 2.5 goals, the probability calculated by AI is 49.4%.
VfB Stuttgart – Statistics & current form
A dream start to 2026 for VfB Stuttgart. The first victory in many years against their nemesis Leverkusen at the start of the year seems to have given Sebastian Hoeneß’s team an extra boost. In their home game against Frankfurt, Hoeneß’s protégés were brimming with enthusiasm and confidence.
Will Stuttgart celebrate another home win?
After two difficult opening matches in the Bundesliga against Champions League participants Bayer Leverkusen and Eintracht Frankfurt, Union Berlin presents a task that, on paper, should be solvable for the Swabians this coming weekend. Nevertheless, coach Sebastian Hoeneß is likely to raise a warning finger. He knows full well that virtues such as commitment and resilience will be required against the robust and combative opponents from the capital.
If VfB brings these virtues to the pitch against Union Berlin, we don’t see too many reasons to bet against a VfB Stuttgart home win. The Swabians have been very convincing at home on the Neckar so far this season. However, we expect a completely different game against Köpenick than against the strong teams from Leverkusen and Frankfurt.
Union Berlin is unlikely to try to play along like the two aforementioned teams against the German cup winners, which of course suited VfB in the last two games and helped them to show off their playing class. Against a Berlin team that is likely to park the bus, patience will be required above all else, which is why we do not expect a high-class game like the last two on Saturday, nor as many goals as last time.
Union Berlin – Statistics & current form
After their opening games against Mainz and Augsburg, who are both at the bottom of the table, Steffen Baumgart’s team are not doing too badly in the standings ahead of their match against five-time German champions VfB Stuttgart. In any case, Steffen Baumgart’s team does not have to worry about relegation at the moment, as it did last season.
Can the Iron Men pull off a surprise on the Neckar?
After taking over as head coach of the Köpenick-based club almost exactly a year ago, former Bundesliga striker Steffen Baumgart has managed to stabilize his team bit by bit. His team has put in some convincing away performances this season. And his team also knows how to trip up a big favorite. Union Berlin were one of the few teams this season to take a point off Bayern Munich.
However, this was at home at the Alte Försterei, where the capital city team is more likely to pull off such a coup against a top team than away. That’s why our VfB Stuttgart vs. Union Berlin prediction is leaning toward a home win for the Swabians. Individually, Sebastian Hoeneß’s team is simply better staffed, as was clearly evident in the most recent comparisons between the two teams. In the last six encounters with the Swabians, Union only managed one draw, with VfB winning five times.
VfB Stuttgart – Union Berlin Head-to-head record
The two teams have faced each other 16 times so far, with the record almost evenly balanced. VfB have won five times and Köpenick four times. In addition, there have been seven draws. At home, however, the Swabians’ record against the capital city team looks more favorable.
Union Berlin have won only one of the eight games played at the Neckar so far, with VfB winning four times (4-3-1). VfB have also won each of their last three home games against Union Berlin. That’s why the betting odds for VfB Stuttgart vs. Union Berlin on Saturday are once again clearly in favor of the home team.
VfB Stuttgart – Union Berlin Tip
VfB Stuttgart are clear favorites going into their upcoming home game against Union Berlin. So far this season, only Bayern Munich have managed to take all three points at the MHP Arena. VfB has won six of its eight home games in this Bundesliga season.
In addition to the higher individual quality and the current high level of self-confidence after the two opening victories, VfB’s strength in front of its home crowd should also earn it the next three points this coming Sunday. Nevertheless, we expect a tough battle and a game of patience against the underdogs from the capital.
Although Steffen Baumgart’s team is not necessarily known for attractive soccer and high-scoring games, the last three encounters between VfB Stuttgart and Union Berlin have been surprisingly high-scoring. Fans were treated to a total of 16 goals in these three games. In particular, last season’s 4-4 draw, in which all eight goals were scored in the first half, went down in Bundesliga history.
Nevertheless, we don’t believe this VfB Stuttgart vs. Union Berlin match will be a goal fest. At first glance, this assessment may seem surprising given the ten goals scored in the last two VfB games and the recent history of this fixture.
The reason why the over 2.5 goal mark was not broken in half of all VfB home games in the first half of the season is simple. This season, Sebastian Hoeneß’s team has made a significant step forward in its defensive play compared to last season.
Hoeneß’s protégés have even kept a clean sheet four times at the MHP Arena. That’s why we also see potential in betting on fewer than four goals in the game or a combination of betting on a Stuttgart win and not too many goals in the game.
