Will Freiburg win the top match in Czechia?
One of the top matches of Matchday 5 in the UEFA Europa League will take place on Thursday evening in Plzeň. SC Freiburg will be the visitors to the Czech beer capital, keen to redeem themselves after their crushing 6-2 defeat in Munich at the weekend.
The league phase of Europe’s second most important club competition has been a good one for both clubs so far. The Sport-Club is in second place with ten points, while Viktoria is currently in eighth place with two points less. Accordingly, it is quite complicated to make a prediction on the three-way market in the duel between the still undefeated teams Viktoria Pilsen and Freiburg.
Various statistics underscore how difficult the task will be for the Bundesliga club. First and foremost is the home strength of the Czech top club. Against Fenerbahce Istanbul, the Red and Blues earned a scoreless draw. They even celebrated a 3-0 home win against Malmö. The multiple national champions have yet to concede a goal at home in the EL league phase. In total, coach Martin Hysky’s team has conceded only two goals in four games (2-2-0).
At the international level, the Pilsen team is showing a completely different face than in the league. There, they conceded a whopping eight (!) goals in the last two matchdays alone. In sixth place in the table, the beer city team is lagging well behind its own expectations. Slavia Prague, the league leaders, are already ten points ahead. Due to three consecutive competitive games without a win, I am not keen to make a prediction in favor of the home side ahead of the Viktoria Pilsen vs. Freiburg match.
The Viktoria Pilsen vs. Freiburg odds, which are aimed at under goals in some way, are more profitable. In three of the four Europa League matches involving Freiburg, there were a maximum of three goals. Across all competitions, a bet on under 3.5 would have been successful in nine of the last 13 SCF matches.
Given that Freiburg head coach Julian Schuster will certainly instruct his players to be more stable, structured, and disciplined defensively after conceding six goals against Bayern on Saturday, I would even advocate betting on a maximum of two goals in the game.
Viktoria Plzeň – Freiburg Head-to-head record / H2H record
The two clubs will face each other for the first time in European competition on Thursday evening. SC Freiburg has played clubs from Czechia four times. The record is completely balanced, with one win and two draws each. For Pilsen, however, matches against German representatives have not been crowned with success so far. In nine attempts, they have only managed two draws. Zero wins but seven defeats round off the H2H.
Viktoria Plzeň – Freiburg Tip
Only FC Midtjylland (twelve) has more points than SC Freiburg (ten) after four matchdays in the league phase of the UEFA Europa League. The Breisgauers have been successful in eight of twelve matches in this competition since October 2023 and are currently enjoying the distraction from their relatively dreary league routine.
The home side from Pilsen are in a similar situation, currently occupying only sixth place in the Czechia top flight, conceding eight goals in their last two games and failing to win their last EL home game. The 0-0 draw against Fenerbahce could have been a blueprint for the upcoming duel with the Bundesliga side.
In my opinion, the clubs will meet on equal terms on Thursday evening at the early kick-off time. The Czechs have home advantage, while the Black Forest team has slightly higher quality and strong performances on the international stage. Because Julian Schuster’s visitors have struggled offensively time and again this season, my Viktoria Plzen vs. Freiburg tip is for under 2.5 goals. Alternatively, you could even consider a completely goalless first half or combine the double chance X2 with under 3.5 goals. The latter approach still brings in 1.87 and is therefore comparable to the 1.83 for a maximum of two goals in the game.
