Mbangula vs. Matanovic – which new signing will shine this time?
Horst Steffen and Julian Schuster must have been delighted last weekend that their third attempt finally resulted in their first Bundesliga win of the season. Werder Bremen won 4-0 in Mönchengladbach, while SC Freiburg came from behind at home against VfB Stuttgart to ultimately prevail 3-1. In Saturday afternoon’s direct duel, both teams will be looking to build on their victories, although a prediction on the three-way market between Werder Bremen and Freiburg is very complicated.
However, it would be disastrous for the home side if Samuel Mbangula, the new signing from Juventus, were to be ruled out due to injury. The attacking player, who impressed across the board last week with his first Bundesliga goal, an assist, and a penalty, is currently suffering from thigh problems. However, coach Steffen is cautiously optimistic about this situation, so ahead of the match between Werder Bremen and Freiburg, it is safe to predict that 21-year-old Mbangula will be in action.
At Sport-Club, Igor Matanovic, another summer signing, also became the match winner. The striker, who came from Frankfurt, scored twice and was the key figure in the 3-1 win last Saturday after coming on as a substitute.
Werder Bremen vs. Freiburg AI prediction
With an estimated probability of 45.8% and a higher xG value (1.48 vs. 1.18), the Werder Bremen vs. Freiburg AI prediction definitely favors the Hanseatic team. Value is also on offer, as instead of 2.20 for a home win, which corresponds to the AI probability of victory, the Interwetten app is offering 2.40 on Steffen’s team.
Werder Bremen – Statistics & current form
With a bitter exit from the DFB Cup at the hands of second division side Arminia Bielefeld and a crushing 1-4 defeat in the Bundesliga opener in Frankfurt, the 2025/26 season began with two heavy blows for SV Werder Bremen. The first notorious pessimists immediately attributed this to a disastrous transfer summer and predicted a lengthy relegation battle for the North Germans. Around three weeks later, however, the naysayers have almost completely fallen silent.
Something is growing together on the Weser
First, coach Horst Steffen’s team, who moved to Osterdeich with high expectations after years at SV Elversberg, fought to a draw at home against Bayer Leverkusen despite being a man down. Last week, a 4-0 win in Gladbach finally brought the first three points and also the highest league victory since September 2023. The Green-Whites have climbed to ninth place and are keen to add to their points tally ahead of next week’s away game at Munich’s Allianz Arena.
One factor in favor of a Werder Bremen vs. Freiburg prediction is the fact that the former German champions have not lost any of their last five home games across two seasons (2-3-0) and have kept a clean sheet in four of five games at their own stadium since the beginning of April.
On the other hand, they have only lost one of their last eleven Bundesliga games (6-4-1). Despite some personnel changes in the summer, the team seems to be growing together and playing with joy. Eight goals scored is the second-best offensive record in the German top flight.
Freiburg – Statistics & current form
After two matchdays, SC Freiburg was still at the bottom of the table. At home against FC Augsburg (1-3) and in Cologne (1-4), the Breisgauers were badly beaten and were therefore under pressure before their home game against VfB Stuttgart. At halftime, the Sport-Club was still trailing 0:1 against the Swabians, but thanks to a significant improvement in performance after the break, Schuster’s team turned the game around and ultimately won 3:1.
Freiburg needs to step up its defensive game
All five of SCF’s goals so far this season have come in the second half. The South Germans have always been behind after 45 minutes. For risk-averse bettors, it therefore makes sense to consider the high betting odds on HT1/FT1 before the Werder Bremen vs. Freiburg match.
In general, bets on over goals make sense, as Schuster’s team has conceded eight goals and is one of the most vulnerable defenses in the league. They conceded four goals in their only away game so far in Cologne. At least three goals in 90 minutes will be rewarded with 1.62 at Betano this weekend.
Werder Bremen – Freiburg Head-to-head record
The two clubs will face each other for the 49th time in the Bundesliga this weekend. Bremen’s 24 victories not only represent an impressive 50% win rate, but also give SV Werder a clear advantage in the overall head-to-head record (24-10-14). At home, the North Germans have celebrated twelve victories (six draws, six defeats) in 24 Bundesliga matches against SCF.
However, Freiburg have won five of the last six encounters in the top flight of German soccer. Since the start of the 22/23 season, the men from the Weser have lost more league games to Bayern than to the Sport-Club.
Werder Bremen – Freiburg Tip
Did you know that Saturday afternoon at the Weserstadion will see a duel between the two statistically weakest goalkeepers of this Bundesliga season so far? Noah Atubolu and Mio Backhaus were unable to save even 40% of all shots on goal in the first three matchdays.
This circumstance provides an initial argument for a relatively high-scoring game on the fourth match day. In addition, Bremen have scored eight goals so far, while Freiburg have conceded eight. A total of 15 goals were scored in three Werder games, an average of five per 90 minutes.
All in all, I therefore recommend betting on at least one goal being scored in both halves of the match between Werder Bremen and Freiburg. Unlike with over 2.5, two goals may be enough for this bet to win.
