How can Werder get out of this slump?
The Green-Whites have been waiting for a Bundesliga win since the beginning of November. The club from northern Germany has now gone nine games without a win, most recently losing 2-0 to Hoffenheim in a rescheduled match. The signs are not looking much better for SVW fans ahead of our Werder Bremen vs. Gladbach prediction.
Head coach Horst Steffen is in a tricky position. Three points in the Werder Bremen vs. Gladbach prediction would be ideal for staying in the league, but the personnel situation is depressing. There are a lot of absences, especially in the Hanseatic defense.
At least Gladbach are coming off the back of a slight downward trend themselves. Eugen Polanski and his team lost 3-0 to VfB Stuttgart in their last game. That means BMG have only won one of their last six Bundesliga games (1D, 4L).
However, it would not necessarily be fair to blame the defense for the heavy defeats against Stuttgart and Hoffenheim (1-5). Gladbach has already finished two of four Bundesliga matches this calendar year without conceding a goal.
However, the Werder Bremen vs. Gladbach odds offered by betting providers with German licenses appear to be fairly evenly distributed. The home side’s relative strength at home speaks in their favor. On average, SVW collected more than twice as many points at the Weserstadion (1.33 per game) than away (0.60).
Nevertheless, the Green-Whites’ goal tally is worrying. Steffen’s team has scored 21 goals in 19 Bundesliga matches – only eleven of those have been at the Weserstadion (9 games).
Werder Bremen vs. Gladbach AI prediction
Artificial intelligence is similarly cautious in its expectations for the respective offensive lines. While bookmakers tend to expect several goals, the Werder Bremen vs. Gladbach AI prediction sees value in “under 2.5 goals” in the match.
Werder Bremen – Statistics & current form
The north is under threat in the German upper house. It’s not just the Green-Whites (15th) who are hovering near the relegation zone in the table. They are in good company with St. Pauli (17th), HSV (14th) and Wolfsburg (12th). Overall, the four clubs are all within five points of each other.
Bremen are currently in miserable form, having gone nine Bundesliga games without a win, failing to score in four of their last five matches and lacking an outstanding striker to lead the line.
The home side’s top scorer is once again midfielder and driving force Jens Stage (6 goals). Yet the Hanseatic club has one of the best playmakers in the German top flight at its disposal in Romano Schmid. The Austrian has created 11 big chances (2nd) and 51 scoring opportunities (2nd) up to the Werder Bremen – Gladbach tip.
Will Jovan Milosevic take on the role of goal scorer?
The offensive department is a big issue for many northern German clubs. St. Pauli (15.86 xG) has scored the fewest expected goals in the league. HSV is right behind them (20.76 xG). Only FC Augsburg (20.92 xG) lies between the archrivals and Werder (22.93 xG).
The men from the Weserstadion have hardly benefited from Victor Boniface. The B04 loan player is out for the rest of the season after knee surgery. Another loan player is now set to provide relief in attack. Jovan Milosevic has played 167 minutes so far, taken five shots and scored one goal. His starting debut against Hoffenheim (0-2) was uneventful.
Justin Njinmah has been the most dangerous player so far. The lightning-fast winger has an xG of 0.35 per 90 minutes – the best in the team. However, Jens Stage showed the best shooting quality, raising his xG value from 3.4 to 4.6 xGoT with accurate finishes.
Gladbach – Statistics & current form
Just two points ahead of Bremen, Gladbach are already appearing in the Bundesliga table. Unlike SVW, Gladbach have already undergone a change of coach. Gerardo Seoane accompanied BMG for the last time in the first half of the season against Werder. The 0-4 defeat ultimately cost him his job.
His successor, Eugen Polanski, has also struggled to pick up points recently. At the beginning of December, the eleventh-placed team celebrated a 1-0 win against Mainz, extending their unbeaten run in the Bundesliga to five games (4W, 1D). Since then, there has been only one more win – a 4-0 home victory against Augsburg.
BMG has lost four of its last six games. However, three of these four defeats were against one of the current top five teams in the Bundesliga. You should therefore not place too much emphasis on the performances against Stuttgart (0-3), Hoffenheim (1-5), and Dortmund (0-2) in connection with our Werder Bremen vs. Gladbach prediction.
A combination of defense and goalkeeper
Among all Bundesliga goalkeepers, Moritz Nicolas has saved the most shots per 90 minutes (3.8) this season. The second-best goalkeeper in this discipline is Mio Backhaus, the SV Werder Bremen goalkeeper. This goalkeeper duel could be interesting.
Nicolas has left the field with a clean sheet eight times so far this season – only Peter Gulacsi (9) and Gregor Kobel (10), who are both goalkeepers for one of the top four teams, have collected more. Away from home, only Leipzig (5) has kept more clean sheets than BMG (4).
The interplay between the goalkeeper and the defense is of great importance in achieving these statistics. Gladbach often defends skillfully and, on average, tends to allow shots with little chance of success. Only Bayern and Dortmund (0.09 xGA/shot each) have a lower expected goals against per shot. Nicolas then fulfills his duty with flying colors.
Werder Bremen – Gladbach Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
We are taking a clear break from the recent results between these two Bundesliga clubs in the upcoming match. The last eight consecutive matches between SVW and BMG have featured over 3.5 goals. However, the signs do not point in that direction in this case.
Gladbach has finished half of its last eight Bundesliga matches without scoring and has recently left the field without scoring twice in a row. We have already reported extensively on the Green-Whites’ problems in front of the opponent’s goal.
Werder Bremen – Gladbach Tip
Haris Tabakovic took a penalty against VfB Stuttgart on the last matchday and missed. This failed penalty is the 79th in the club’s history. No other Bundesliga club has missed more penalties in the German top flight.
It was the best chance in the game against VfB, which ended without BMG scoring. For the Foals, it was already the ninth game this season without scoring. The number of goalless games for SVW in this Bundesliga season is similarly high (8).
We expect a competitive game at the Weserstadion. Bremen has achieved its best xG values this season at the Weserstadion, which is why we have added a small buffer to the selected Werder Bremen vs. Gladbach odds. Two goals from the Green-Whites would be surprising given the last few weeks.
