Will Werder drop important points in the northern derby?

During the week, Werder icon Otto Rehhagel commented on the current situation at the Bundesliga club from Bremen. “King Otto” praised his former club’s good form and held out the prospect of a European place. In fact, the men from the Weser are currently only two points behind sixth place. The remaining fixtures also look feasible on paper. To further improve their own prospects, it would be hugely important if a bet on Werner’s team paid off on Sunday afternoon between Werder Bremen and St. Pauli.

However, the visitors from Hamburg will know how to defend themselves, especially as coach Alexander Blessin’s protégés still need points to secure another year in the top flight. However, the Kiezkickers are not really feeling the pressure with an eight-point lead over the relegation spot. This is one of the reasons why, as in previous weeks, we can expect the “Boys in Brown” to play fearlessly and courageously, bringing plenty of momentum with them to think about a prediction for the promoted team ahead of the match between Werder Bremen and St. Pauli.

Werder have won all three of their matches against promoted teams so far this season. The last time the north Germans celebrated more wins against Bundesliga newcomers in a single season was in 2009/10, when they even qualified for the UEFA Champions League. In the current season, however, even a ticket to the Conference League would be celebrated frenetically.

Werder Bremen vs. St. Pauli prediction AI

Compared to the bookmakers, artificial intelligence has calculated an even higher probability of victory for Bremen. With just under 54% and predicted xG values of 1.55 to 0.86, according to “BETSiE,” a bet on a home win in the three-way market is definitely worth considering. However, value can also be found in the Werder Bremen vs. St. Pauli AI prediction for under 2.5 goals.

Werder Bremen – Statistics & current form

SV Werder Bremen is currently the team of the moment in the Bundesliga. Thanks to four wins in their last four games, Werder have picked up a maximum haul of twelve points and are back in contention for one of the coveted European places. For the first time in almost exactly ten years – back then under Viktor Skripnik – the Green-Whites celebrated four Bundesliga wins in a row, including victories against top teams such as Eintracht Frankfurt and cup finalists VfB Stuttgart. In eighth place, they are now only two points behind sixth place, which they must secure this season in order to qualify for international competition in 2025/26.

Werner following in Skripnik’s footsteps: Will Werder celebrate their fifth Bundesliga win in a row?

Despite the fact that the North Germans already have more points than they did after 34 matchdays last season and that Werder have only finished one Bundesliga season with more points in the last 13 years, coach Ole Werner’s men are far from immune to slip-ups. Last week, Marvin Ducksch and his teammates struggled to a lackluster 1-0 win at home against second-to-last Bochum, with the result hanging in the balance until the final whistle.

With an even stronger and more difficult opponent waiting, I would be cautious about predicting a home win for Werder Bremen against St. Pauli. My concerns are supported by the fact that the Green-Whites have won only five of their 15 home games this season, are only twelfth in the home table, and have conceded a whopping 26 goals. Regardless, all fans are expecting a home win for their team, which, as we know, could inhibit the team and quickly lead to disruptive noise from the stands.

There was also some noise during the week. This was triggered by Oliver Burke’s decision not to extend his Werder contract and to announce his departure at the end of the season. In all likelihood, the lightning-fast striker, who has performed outstandingly in recent weeks, will move to Union Berlin. If Burke scores again in his farewell tour in the penultimate home game on Sunday, betting odds of 2.75 are being offered for this at Bet365 ahead of the match between Werder Bremen and St. Pauli.

St. Pauli – Statistics & current form

The longer the season goes on, the stronger FC St. Pauli gets. This is definitely the impression you get when you look at the Kiezkickers’ recent performances. The Hamburg team delivered what was probably one of their best performances of the season last week. At home against the (still) reigning double winners Bayer 04 Leverkusen, Pauli fought hard to earn a point in a 1-1 draw, but could have deserved even more given the chances they created and their share of possession. If the former World Cup winners can build on this performance at the weekend, anything is possible on the Weser.

St. Pauli are unbeaten in three league games

This is particularly impressive given that the team from the Elbe have picked up more points away from home (16) than at home (14) this season and have celebrated almost twice as many wins (five) on the road as in front of their own fans (three). Added to this is their good form, which is reflected in five points from their last three games. Thanks to this mini-spurt, the gap to the relegation spot has already increased to eight points. At this late stage of the season, no Bundesliga team has ever squandered such a comfortable cushion in 16th place…

While coach Alexander Blessin’s team defined itself throughout the entire first half of the season and for much of the second half primarily by its very stable defense, which conceded the third fewest goals of all Bundesliga teams, the offense has now also gained significantly in striking power. In six consecutive games, the Kiezkickers have scored at least one goal. Moreover, during this period, they only conceded more than one goal in the narrow 2-3 defeat at Bayern Munich.

Considering that only three of the promoted team’s 30 Bundesliga matches have seen more than 3.5 goals scored, there are several betting recommendations for the upcoming clash in the north. For example, you can bet on a maximum of one goal being scored in the first 45 minutes at odds of 1.47 in the Interwetten app. Alternatively, you can combine the double chance X2 with a maximum of three goals after 90 minutes at impressive odds of 2.58.

Werder Bremen – St. Pauli Head-to-head record / H2H record

There have been 17 meetings in the Bundesliga to date. Werder Bremen have emerged victorious on twelve occasions. In addition to four draws, FC St. Pauli have only celebrated a single win in the German top flight. Curiously, this sole victory dates back to 1977, the very first Bundesliga clash between the two sides. Since then, the Kiezkickers have been waiting 16 Bundesliga games for a win against SV Werder. The first leg ended 2-0 to Werner’s side, with Marvin Ducksch and Derrick Köhn on the scoresheet.

Werder Bremen – St. Pauli Tip

Can Werder continue to dream of a comeback on the international stage? The chance is definitely still there, especially as coach Ole Werner’s team has won five of its last six Bundesliga games and has even left the pitch as the winner four times in a row recently. Given this remarkable form, which also led to a lucky 1-0 home win against VfL Bochum last week, it is understandable that Werder, in eighth place, are considered favorites against the 15th-placed team, but I would still refrain from betting on a win for the hosts.

The visitors from Millerntor are also in good shape, picking up five points from their last three games and losing just one of their last six Bundesliga matches (2-3 in Munich). Blessin’s team is impressing with a solid defense and an improving attack. That’s exactly why I think the Kiezkickers can get a point on the Weser and I’m going to risk a bet on X2 & Under 3.5 ahead of the Werder Bremen vs. St. Pauli match.