Final match for Paul Simonis
After being knocked out of the DFB Cup by second division side Holstein Kiel, the home game against TSG Hoffenheim was actually declared the final for Paul Simonis. However, VfL Wolfsburg lost 2-3 in front of their home crowd, giving the 40-year-old Dutchman one last chance. But if the tip for a Lower Saxony victory doesn’t come true in the match between Werder Bremen and Wolfsburg, it could be the end for the coach, especially since there is an international break immediately afterwards, which would give a possible successor some time to settle in at the Lower Saxony club.
However, there is not much to suggest that the prediction of an away win for the Wolves, who have lost six of their last seven competitive games (one win), will come true in Werder Bremen’s match against Wolfsburg. The only exception was a 1-0 win at Hamburger SV. One small ray of hope: that three points at the Alster were already the Lower Saxony club’s sixth Bundesliga away win in the 2025 calendar year, compared to just one home win in the entire year. The Wolves therefore seem to be a little more aggressive away from home. However, given that SVW are in good form and strong defensively, the match combo on the double chance 1X with under 4.5 goals still offers us far more value.
It shouldn’t be a particularly high-scoring match. SVW has conceded the most shots on goal in the current Bundesliga season (149, or 16.6 per league game). Nevertheless, Bremen has been very solid defensively, as evidenced by the fact that they have kept two clean sheets in their last four league games and conceded only three goals in total. However, those who believe VfL can win on the Weser can cover a few eventualities by betting on under 3.5 goals.
Werder Bremen vs. Wolfsburg Prediction AI
AI sees SV Werder Bremen as the clear favorite in this matchup and finds sufficient value in the win bet. For tip 1, LeoVegas, where new customers can claim a classic 100% bonus up to €100 with the LeoVegas bonus, offers odds of 2.23, which implies a probability of 44.8 percent. According to the Werder Bremen vs. Wolfsburg AI prediction, however, the Weserelf’s chance of winning is estimated at 47.7 percent. That is around three percent higher, creating a positive expected value.
Werder Bremen – Statistics & current form
After Horst Steffen’s tenure at Werder Bremen got off to a rather slow start with a cup defeat to second division side Bielefeld and three defeats from the first five Bundesliga games (one win, one draw), SV Werder Bremen has stabilised again under the long-standing Elversberg coach. Their home form is particularly impressive: of their last eight Bundesliga home games, they have lost only one (four wins, three draws). After recent victories against St. Pauli and Union Berlin (both 1-0), they are on course for three home wins in a row for the first time since March/April 2019.
After nine games, they have twelve points, the same as last season. Only in 2022/23 (15) have they had more in the last five seasons. Werder are currently unbeaten in four Bundesliga games (two wins, two draws), conceding only three goals and keeping two clean sheets. Only FC Bayern have been better in the same period. Accordingly, the tip for Werder Bremen against Wolfsburg is that the North Germans can now continue their run.
Werder Bremen with problems in build-up play
Nevertheless, there is still room for improvement in many areas. Not only did Steffen’s team concede the most shots in the league (149), but they also had the most high ball wins (87) and the highest average ball recovery line (46.1 meters) in the league – a clear warning sign for their build-up play.
Individually, Jens Stage leads the team with three goals this season. He made his debut in 2022 in a 2-2 draw in Wolfsburg with an assist and has the most assists against VfL (two, as against Leipzig). Romano Schmid drives the offensive play with seven big chances created (best in the league, along with Arnold) and 2.9 expected assists (only Olise has more). If Werder minimizes turnovers in the first phase, the ingredients are there for another three points at home.
Wolfsburg – Statistics & current form
Eight points after nine games means VfL Wolfsburg has the second-worst Bundesliga record (as in 2012/13 and 1998/99), which is why there is a lot of unrest and coach Paul Simonis is now facing his second final after being given another chance following the 2-3 defeat to TSG Hoffenheim.
But now results are imperative, because in the last six games, only St. Pauli has earned fewer points (zero) than VfL (three). A trip to the Weser is actually convenient, because the Wolves have won four of their last five Bundesliga away games here. No other club has celebrated more Bundesliga away wins than Werder (13). It is also noteworthy that six of the seven Bundesliga victories in 2025 came away from home, including the last five. This shows that there is still life in the team, at least on foreign soil.
Will the Wolves show their teeth on the Weser?
Overall, not all of the crisis-stricken Wolves’ performance data was bad. Wolfsburg leads the Bundesliga in high ball wins (39), for example, and wins the ball on average very deep (37.2 meters from their own goal). Now, of all times, they face an opponent against whom they have the most high ball wins in the league. Aggressive pressing could therefore pay off if the rest of the defense is solid.
Up front, Mohamed Amoura has scored four goals this season (team best) after his brace against Hoffenheim and could score in two consecutive league games for the first time since November/December 2024. If you want to bet on another goal from the Algerian.
Werder Bremen – Wolfsburg Head-to-head record
Head to head: 33 – 12 – 25
A total of 70 competitive matches have been played between the two teams so far, with SV Werder Bremen leading the head-to-head record with 33 wins, although they have struggled to get results against VfL Wolfsburg recently, especially at home on the Weser. Werder have lost four of their last five Bundesliga home games against the Lower Saxony side (one win) – including their last home game on March 1, 2025 (1-2).
Werder Bremen – Wolfsburg Tip
Overall, our prediction for Werder Bremen vs. Wolfsburg favors the in-form Weser team, which has not lost in four league games (two wins, two draws), conceding just three goals and keeping a clean sheet in two of the four games. The Wolves, on the other hand, have lost six of their last seven competitive games (one win) and seem more down and out than ever after a busy week that saw them knocked out of the cup and suffer a home defeat to Hoffenheim. Although the Lower Saxony side are currently more dangerous away than at home, an away win would come as a big surprise to us.
However, given the defensive qualities of the hosts and the Wolves’ occasional lack of punch, we don’t expect a goal fest on the Weser. It therefore makes sense to go for the combined tip of double chance 1X with under 4.5 goals.
