Will Westphalia extend their winning streak against the Wolves?

While Borussia Dortmund remain Bayern’s closest challengers and have reduced the gap to the Reds to six points, the ice is getting thinner and thinner for VfL Wolfsburg at the bottom of the table. The Wolves have picked up just four points from a possible 18 in their last six league games and are now only one point above the relegation zone. As a result, the trend for Wolfsburg against Dortmund is towards an away win for the Westphalians.

The Lower Saxony club recorded one of its greatest successes against BVB when it won the DFB Cup in 2015. Since then, however, only two of the subsequent 22 competitive games have gone to the Wolves (two draws, 18 defeats), who are also anything but strong at home overall. Not only did VfL pick up just nine points in ten Bundesliga home games, but they also failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last 16 Bundesliga home games. Against this backdrop, our prediction for Wolfsburg vs. Dortmund is quite straightforward: an away win for the Black and Yellows.

BVB, who have kept ten clean sheets in the first 20 matchdays, need to be careful, especially in the opening quarter of an hour. The Wolves have scored eight goals in this period, the most in the league. Considering that Westphalia have conceded eight goals in their last five competitive games across all competitions, including four games in which they conceded two goals, we also think a high-scoring encounter between the two clubs is very likely.

Wolfsburg vs. Dortmund Prediction AI

Overall, the odds offered by the best bookmakers for this match are very cleverly set, with AI finding only a negative expected value in most markets for Wolfsburg vs. Dortmund according to the AI prediction. However, one exception is the tip that a maximum of one team will score. Because the Bet-at-home app offers odds of 2.45 for this, which implies a probability of 40.8 percent, AI actually sees value in this betting option. AI ultimately rates the probability of a maximum of one team scoring at 42.7 percent, which is almost two percentage points higher.

Wolfsburg – Statistics & current form

After a disastrous start to the season under Paul Simonis, VfL Wolfsburg made changes to the coaching staff. The Dutchman was replaced by Daniel Bauer, who has not yet been able to bring back success. Overall, the Green-Whites have won only one of their last six league games (one draw, four defeats). Particularly bitter: Recently, they have dropped points against direct rivals at the bottom of the table. Against Heidenheim, they only managed a 1-1 draw, before losing away games in Mainz (1-3) and Cologne (0-1).

The German-licensed betting providers are therefore clearly against Wolfsburg in the match against Dortmund, with the Lower Saxony club having their worst season in their history with only 19 points from 20 Bundesliga games. Previously, they had always had at least 21 points after 20 games. In addition, VfL has the third-weakest defense in the league with 42 goals conceded and has been waiting for a clean sheet for twelve Bundesliga games.

Wolfsburg with major problems in their own stadium

At home, the Wolves have recently shown a slight stabilization. In their last four Bundesliga home games, they have picked up seven points, which is as many as in their previous 14 home games combined. Nevertheless, they are simply unable to keep a clean sheet in front of their home crowd. VfL have been waiting for a clean sheet at home for 16 Bundesliga games, which is a negative club record.

The extremes in the course of the game are striking. On the one hand, the Green-Whites have scored eight goals in the opening quarter of an hour this season, the most in the league. On the other hand, however, they have already squandered 18 points after taking the lead, the highest number in the league. In addition, they have conceded 13 goals from set pieces. The fact that Moritz Jenz is now suspended is also a major blow. After all, he had the best pass and tackle rate in the team so far…

Dortmund – Statistics & current form

Borussia Dortmund has lost its direct ticket to the Champions League round of 16 and now has to face Atalanta Bergamo in the playoffs before facing either Arsenal or Bayern in the round of 16. In the Bundesliga, however, BVB is having its best season in seven years with 45 points after 20 Bundesliga games.

Only in the 2018/19 season was the points tally higher at this stage, making the interim conclusion after a year under Niko Kovac thoroughly positive. The Black and Yellows have also lost only one of their first 20 games of the season, remaining as consistent as they were in 2018/19. The Westphalians are currently unbeaten in 13 Bundesliga games. With nine wins and four draws, this is the longest unbeaten streak in the league.

Dortmund doesn’t give up too many goals

BVB sets the standard defensively. With ten clean sheets, Dortmund has the best record in the league. In the first half of the season, Borussia conceded only four goals, with no other team remaining in single digits. In the first 15 minutes, they conceded only one goal. Wolfsburg vs. Dortmund is an even better opportunity to bet on an away win for the Black and Yellows, who conceded almost nothing during the Wolves’ strongest phase.

The Westphalians were also convincing in attack. Dortmund have already scored 15 goals from set pieces, including five of their last seven. Serhou Guirassy scored twice last time out, his first Bundesliga brace since August 2025. He has scored more Bundesliga goals against Wolfsburg than against any other opponent.

Wolfsburg – Dortmund Head-to-head record

Head to head: 12 – 13 – 37

The two teams have played each other 62 times in competitive matches, with Borussia Dortmund leading the head-to-head record by a clear margin with 37 wins. BVB have suffered some painful defeats against VfL Wolfsburg, such as the 3-1 loss in the 2015 DFB Cup final. Since then, however, the Black and Yellows have lost only two of the subsequent 22 competitive games against the Wolves (18 wins, two draws). The first leg also went to Kovac’s team 1-0.

Wolfsburg – Dortmund Tip

While BVB are unbeaten in 13 Bundesliga games (nine wins, four draws), have consolidated second place and were on hand to win when Bayern dropped points in their last two games, reducing the gap to first place to six points, the Wolves are still embroiled in a relegation battle. The Green-Whites have picked up just four points from a possible 18 in their last six games. One problem remains their poor performance in front of their home crowd, where they failed to win against bottom-of-the-table Heidenheim (1-1). Lower Saxony have won just two of their ten Bundesliga home games in 2025/26 (three draws, five defeats). Accordingly, our prediction for Wolfsburg vs. Dortmund is a clear away win for the Black and Yellows.

Last but not least, the record also clearly favors the Westphalians, who have won 18 of their last 22 competitive games against VfL (two draws, two defeats).