From European Cup to league duel: Can Mainz capitalize on the euphoria?

On the second matchday of the Bundesliga, VfL Wolfsburg welcomes FSV Mainz 05 to the Volkswagen Arena on Sunday afternoon. The mood after the start of the season couldn’t be more different: while the Wolves secured a confident victory against Heidenheim on the first matchday, Mainz suffered their first home defeat since October 2024 against newly promoted Cologne. The last direct duel between the two teams in Wolfsburg ended 4-3 in favor of the Wolves, and the most recent matches between the two teams have almost always promised a spectacle with lots of goals. Is a Wolfsburg vs. Mainz tip in this direction interesting this time around as well?

VfL Wolfsburg has made a perfect start to this early stage of the Bundesliga season, winning its opening game 3-1 against FC Heidenheim. The Wolves also made no mistake in the cup, rolling over SV Hemelingen with a spectacular 9-0 victory—the highest win of the entire round. Against Mainz, VfL could secure their third win in three games, and history has shown that Wolfsburg have already picked up a few home wins against Mainz.

FSV Mainz 05, on the other hand, have had a turbulent week: On the first matchday, FSV were once again defeated in the 90th minute after a goal from Bülter – giving the promoted team from Cologne their first three points of the season. They also seemed to struggle to score goals, finding the net only twice in their first three competitive games – until Thursday evening. In the Conference League return leg against Rosenborg Trondheim, Mainz showed a completely different side, sending their opponents back to Norway with a 4-1 defeat and securing their first European participation since 2016.

If they carry this euphoria and momentum with them, we could see a completely different Mainz side than on the first matchday. Nevertheless, VfL are a completely different opponent and we are expecting a close game.

Wolfsburg vs. Mainz Prediction AI

For the match between Wolfsburg and Mainz, the AI prediction is aiming for a home win for Wolfsburg. So value is on offer! The xG values of 1.80 to 0.56 also tip the scales in Wolfsburg’s favor.

Wolfsburg – Statistics & current form

VfL Wolfsburg can go into the match against Mainz 05 with a positive record. In the Bundesliga, the Wolves have already celebrated 16 wins, 13 draws, and only nine defeats in a total of 38 matches. Of their last seven games against Mainz, Wolfsburg have lost only one – 1-3 at home in May 2024. The team got off to a convincing start to the current season with a 3-1 win at 1. FC Heidenheim. The last time VfL scored so many goals on the first matchday was in 2011.

In the 2024/25 second half of the season, Wolfsburg never scored more than two goals in a game. Now they have the chance to start a Bundesliga season with two wins for the first time since the 2023/24 season. The substitutes also contributed to the success: On the first matchday, two substitutes, Mattias Svanberg and Mohammed Amoura, scored goals. Since the start of last season, only FC Bayern Munich (17) and VfB Stuttgart (16) have scored more substitute goals than VfL Wolfsburg (13).

Wolves struggle at home

Despite the successful start, the home weakness remains a problem. Since the 5-1 win against Borussia Mönchengladbach in January, Wolfsburg has been waiting for a Bundesliga win in front of its own fans. Five draws and three defeats in eight games mark the longest ongoing series without a home win of any Bundesliga club and the club’s negative record.

In the previous season, VfL failed to live up to its potential, earning only 16 points from 17 home games and setting a new club low. Those who believe that the Wolves will remain winless can bet on Wolfsburg vs. Mainz odds of 1.75 for Mainz to win or draw with Paysafecard at betting providers.
On the other hand, the Wolves have been particularly successful in front of goal against Mainz: they have scored in each of their last seven encounters, including four times with at least three goals. What’s particularly noteworthy here is that the Wolves have always scored in the first half in all of their last seven encounters. Therefore, our Wolfsburg vs. Mainz tip is: VfL will score again in the first half and will also score at least two goals.

Mainz – Statistics & current form

1. FSV Mainz 05, on the other hand, got off to a bad start. The 0-1 defeat to 1. FC Köln was their first home defeat since October 2024, when they also lost 0-1 to RB Leipzig. Two defeats in the first two games of the season threaten the Rheinhessen for the first time since the 2020/21 season, when they lost their first six games. Those who believe Mainz will suffer a second defeat in a row can secure VfL Wolfsburg odds of 2.10 in the Wolfsburg vs. Mainz betting odds.

Mainz also faltered in the final stages of last season, with just one win in their last ten league games across both seasons – a 4-1 victory in Bochum on matchday 33. With five draws and four defeats, no Bundesliga team has earned fewer points since mid-March. In our Wolfsburg vs. Mainz prediction, we are therefore betting on another draw.

Will Mainz continue their strong away run?

Mainz, on the other hand, performed strongly away from home last season. With eight wins and a total of 26 points on the road, they achieved results that have only been surpassed in the 2010/11 season. In addition, the Rheinhessen set a new club record in the Bundesliga with 31 away goals. Their stability when in the lead is also striking: in their last 64 league games, Mainz have only once lost a game after taking the lead – ironically, in their last away game in Wolfsburg in December 2024, when they lost 3-4 despite taking the lead three times.

Paul Nebel scored twice in that game, but he is now suspended for the game against Cologne after receiving a red card. This is a heavy blow for Mainz, as since the start of last season, only Jonathan Burkardt, who has since left the club, has been directly involved in more goals than Nebel, who has scored ten goals and provided four assists. He was already suspended for the 2-2 draw with Wolfsburg in April – the only game in the last 28 Bundesliga matches in which he did not start.

Another focus is on goalkeeper Robin Zentner, who is set to make his 200th Bundesliga appearance for Mainz. He has struggled against Wolfsburg in the past, winning only two of his twelve encounters, with three draws and seven defeats. The only team he has conceded more goals against in the top flight than the 27 against VfL is Bayern Munich.

Wolfsburg – Mainz Head-to-head record / H2H record

VfL Wolfsburg and 1. FSV Mainz 05 have met 48 times in competitive matches to date, 38 times in the Bundesliga and ten times in the 2. Bundesliga. Wolfsburg has the clear advantage with 20 wins, while Mainz has recorded eleven wins and 17 draws.

The Wolves also lead in the goal statistics with 83 goals, while Mainz has 64. This means that the head-to-head comparison clearly favors Wolfsburg, even though Mainz has repeatedly managed to force close games in the past.

Wolfsburg – Mainz Tip

Wolfsburg has a strong record against FSV, but has recently struggled to secure three points at home. Despite Mainz’s strong away form last season, they often failed to get more than a draw.
With VfL’s strong start to the season and Mainz’s rather weaker one, the balance would tip in Wolfsburg’s favor – nevertheless, we believe that qualifying for the Conference League will give the 05ers an extra push in the game. A draw is therefore realistic.

The Wolves have been particularly accurate against FSV, scoring in the first half in each of their last seven encounters, while Mainz have scored in the first half in each of their last four. In addition, Wolfsburg have scored at least twice in six of their last seven home games against FSV, so we are again assuming at least two goals for Wolfsburg in our selection of the Wolfsburg vs. Mainz odds. These figures also lead to the logical conclusion that goals are guaranteed in this game.