How big is the risk of Sascha stumbling?
Alexander Zverev is still ranked third in the ATP world rankings. However, the fact that the Hamburg native is only given the fifth-highest odds for overall victory in the US Open 2025 winner prediction shows that 2025 has been marked by a number of disappointments so far.
Most recently, he was knocked out in the first round at Wimbledon, after which Sascha went public with his mental health issues and sought professional help. On paper, Alexander Zverev is of course the favorite to win his opening match against Alejandro Tabilo. However, if the Chilean puts up a strong fight, it could be closer than German tennis fans would like.
Alejandro Tabilo has only won one match in the men’s singles at the US Open in his career – in 2022, he beat Poland’s Kamil Majchrzak 3-1 in the first round. But Novak Djokovic, among others, knows that the 28-year-old should not be taken lightly. Remarkably, the Chilean has a positive record against the Serb, leading 2-0 in their two meetings. To leave nothing out, we are placing a handicap of +2.5 on Tabilo, which would cover not only a victory for the underdog but also a Zverev victory with a set loss – i.e., a 3-1 or 3-2 result.
The previous meeting between the two athletes also underscores our assessment that a clean 3:0 victory for the Hamburg native is not a value tip. In the semifinals of the 2024 Rome Masters, the first set ultimately went to Alejandro Tabilo. Nevertheless, all Zverev fans would certainly wish him that 3:0 victory in Flushing Meadows, where he tragically lost the grand final 2:3 to Dominic Thiem in 2020 after leading 2:0. And after all, the German number one reached the semifinals in Toronto and Cincinnati, the other two major tournaments in the US Open Series.
If you don’t want to rule out the possibility of a straight 3-0 victory, but still want to get good odds on Alexander Zverev against Alejandro Tabilo, you can use the handy Bet365 app to bet that at least one set in this match will be decided in a tiebreak – regardless of the exact outcome. This tip would have paid off in the last match between the two players.
Alexander Zverev – Alejandro Tabilo Head-to-head record
Head to head: 1:0
The two athletes have crossed paths only once so far, and that duel dates back to the semifinals of the 2024 Rome Masters. After Alexander Zverev initially fell behind 0:1 against the then surprise player from Chile, the Hamburg native ultimately managed a 2:1 comeback victory against Alejandro Tabilo (1:6, 7:6, and 6:2). The German thus leads in the head-to-head comparison.
Alexander Zverev – Alejandro Tabilo Tip
We have already pointed out that we consider the prediction that Alexander Zverev will win 3:0 against Alejandro Tabilo in the opening match to be too risky to justify the much too low odds. Nevertheless, we naturally see Sascha as the favorite, especially since he has been in good form again recently in Toronto and Cincinnati after his first-round exit at Wimbledon, and has mostly remained undefeated in his first rounds against nominally weaker opponents.
Alejandro Tabilo is nevertheless an opponent who should not be underestimated. The 28-year-old leads Novak Djokovic 2-0 in head-to-head matches and, despite his focus on clay, has also been successful on hard courts and grass, as evidenced by his tournament victories in Auckland and Mallorca (both in 2024). It therefore makes sense to apply a handicap of +2.5 to the Chilean.
For Sascha to drop at least one set against the number 122 in the ATP world rankings, Alexander Zverev vs. Alejandro Tabilo betting odds of 2.65 are available, which we are cautiously betting on at Bet-at-home with two out of ten units in view of the high risk.
