Zverev must fight for a place in the semifinals
Alongside the four Grand Slam tournaments, the ATP Finals are the highlight of the tennis calendar. Not only do the best players of the year compete, but the ultimate prize money also adds to the special character of the unofficial world championship, which is held indoors at the Inalpi Arena in Turin.
The format makes it possible for an anticipated final to take place on Friday evening to decide who will advance to the semifinals. Alexander Zverev and Félix Auger-Aliassime each have one win under their belts after two days of play and will battle it out in a direct duel for second place in the Björn Borg Group behind Jannik Sinner. On paper, the best German tennis player is the favorite between Zverev and Auger-Aliassime.
However, it will by no means be an easy task, as the 25-year-old Canadian is one of the best indoor players on the tour and is also in excellent form. Auger-Aliassime won the indoor tournament in Brussels and also reached the final of the Masters in Paris, which he lost to Jannik Sinner.
In Turin, the world number eight, who after initial difficulties is now enjoying a strong season with 50 wins and 24 losses and a Grand Slam semifinal at the US Open, also lost to the local hero and world number one 5-7, 1-6. Nevertheless, the right-hander still has a chance to advance to the semifinals before the final day of play in the round-robin format. On Wednesday, the Canadian came back from a set down to defeat Ben Shelton in three close sets. If the prediction about the hard court specialist from Quebec proves true again on Friday evening between Zverev and Auger-Aliassime, the ticket to the semifinals will be secured.
Zverev also lost to Jannik Sinner in two sets in Turin, but defeated Ben Shelton in two sets in the opening round. Zverev made a good impression in both of his preparatory tournaments in Vienna and Paris, only losing to Jannik Sinner twice in the final and semi-final respectively.
Nevertheless, I have come to the conclusion that the German has been slightly more convincing than his Canadian opponent so far and has shown greater quality, especially in his return game. Zverev earned seven break points against Sinner, for example, while FAA had no chance at all of breaking the South Tyrolean’s serve.
I therefore recommend betting on the world number three from Hamburg to win ahead of the Zverev vs. Auger-Aliassime match.
Alternatively, you could consider betting on tie-breaks in the match. After all, both players have a very good serve. Auger-Aliassime has already hit 18 aces, Zverev twelve. The German in particular has only allowed four break points in two matches and, in my opinion, has the slightly more complete game compared to his upcoming opponent.
Alexander Zverev – Félix Auger-Aliassime Head-to-head record
There has only been one meeting between these two professionals this season. In the third round of the US Open, Felix Auger-Aliassime won in four sets, somewhat surprisingly. The athletes have faced each other ten times in total on the ATP Tour. Sascha Zverev clearly leads the head-to-head record with seven wins and only three defeats. Also interesting: Both indoor hard court matches went to the German, who also has more experience at the ATP Finals. In 2018 and 2021, Zverev was crowned champion at the unofficial tennis world championships, the ATP Finals at the end of the year!
Alexander Zverev – Félix Auger-Aliassime Tip
Jannik Sinner is the clear winner in the “Björn Borg” group. However, alongside the dominant force on the tennis scene, a second player is definitely set to reach the semifinals of the ATP Finals. The winner of the match between Zverev and Auger-Aliassime can look forward to a duel against Carlos Alcaraz. In my opinion, the German has the slightly better cards. The world number three beat Shelton in two sets and also had seven break points against Sinner. Auger-Aliassime struggled with physical problems in his opening match against Sinner, didn’t earn a single break point, and ultimately had to fight back from a 0-1 set deficit against Shelton.
Furthermore, it should be noted that Sascha has won both previous indoor matches against his upcoming opponent. Ultimately, I am therefore leaning towards the Zverev vs. Auger-Aliassime tip on the best German tennis player. Nevertheless, I am by no means ruling out a competitive match. Quite the contrary. I wouldn’t be surprised if at least one set goes the full distance, i.e., to a tiebreak. I’m betting six units on Zverev to win at 1.57 with Betano. Meanwhile, you can even get 1.80 for at least one tiebreak in the Bet365 app.
