Will Sascha overcome the first hurdle?
It should come as no surprise that the two top favorites to win the 2026 Australian Open are Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner. Both athletes have dominated the ATP Tour recently, facing each other not only in the final of the ATP Finals, but also in three of the four Grand Slam tournaments. The only exception was the 2025 Australian Open, where Alexander Zverev made it to the final alongside Jannik Sinner. The German has won 11 of his last 13 singles matches in Melbourne and is once again among the favorites this year.
However, Sascha has been handed a difficult draw. When betting on Alexander Zverev vs. Gabriel Diallo, it is important to consider that his young challenger from Canada has only failed to advance past the first round of a men’s singles Grand Slam tournament once in his career.
The 24-year-old Canadian, with his height of 2.03 meters and a serve that often flies around his opponent’s ears at around 230 km/h, is one of the so-called serve giants of the ATP. This could also be a factor on the fast hard court at Melbourne Park. It is quite conceivable that both players will win all six service games and the match will then be decided in a tiebreak.
In this context, the Zverev vs. Diallo prediction that Gabriel Diallo can take at least one set from the supposed favorite is very interesting, which is why we are applying a handicap of +2.5 sets to the Canadian in our betting recommendation. This also covers the underdog advancing, which would surprise us, but given Sascha’s largely disappointing 2025 season, does not seem completely unthinkable. After all, Diallo is ranked 41st in the ATP world rankings and is no walkover.
On the other hand, if you don’t want to categorically rule out a clean 3-0 victory for the Hamburg native, you can follow the aforementioned approach that sets in which both opponents win all six service games are anything but unlikely. Against this backdrop, Alexander Zverev vs. Gabriel Diallo can also be bet on at odds of 1.54 via the practical bet365 app that more than 0.5 sets will be decided in a tiebreak.
This also covers scenarios in which, for example, the Canadian puts up a strong fight in the first set, loses in the tiebreak, and then puts up less and less resistance in the following two sets.
Alexander Zverev – Gabriel Diallo Head-to-head record
Head to head: 0:0
The two athletes have never crossed paths in a ranked singles match before. Consequently, there is no head-to-head data available that could influence our prediction for Alexander Zverev vs. Gabriel Diallo in any way.
Alexander Zverev – Gabriel Diallo Tip
Basically, we assume that Alexander Zverev will successfully overcome the challenging hurdle in the first round. Nevertheless, Gabriel Diallo, who has only been eliminated in the first round once in six appearances in the main rounds of Grand Slam tournaments in his professional career, has what it takes to make life difficult for the favorite.
As a 2.03-meter giant with a powerful serve and fast baseline play, the Canadian is likely to consistently win the necessary free points, especially on his own serve, meaning that Sascha will have to make the most of the few break opportunities that are likely to arise.
We believe the number 41 in the ATP world rankings is capable of taking at least one set off the German favorite. A very interesting approach would therefore be to place a handicap of +2.5 sets on the supposed underdog, which would cover not only any 3:2 or 3:1 victory for the Hamburg native, but also any surprise elimination of the world number three.
