Will Alcaraz get caught up in another long match?

Compared to last year, Andrey Rublev is playing a good tournament at Wimbledon. More important than that is his improved ability to manage his emotions. This positive development puts the powerful Russian in a favorable position in our Rublev Alcaraz prediction.

The 27-year-old is comfortable with his underdog role in the Rublev vs. Alcaraz prediction and has the tennis to punish his opponent’s usual weak phases in his game. In addition, the former world number five has spent over an hour less on court than the two-time defending champion from Spain.

Andrey Rublev – Statistics & current form

Rublev has long since replaced the negative memories of his first-round defeat last year against Francisco Comesana (1:3) with new images from the current season. As in previous rounds, the 27-year-old knows how to use his raw power to good effect in the Rublev vs. Alcaraz prediction.

So far, the 17-time ATP title holder has managed to avoid a five-set match at this year’s grass court classic in London. Rublev has only dropped two of his service games in his three previous matches. During his first two matches, the 14th-ranked player in the ATP world rankings played five tiebreaks, winning four of them – a sign of his improved handling of stressful situations. It seems sensible to place a bet on “Over 0.5 tiebreaks” with an odds boost.

The Russian tennis pro had his best performance at the All England Club in 2023, when he found his way to the quarterfinals. This is a typical end point for the 27-year-old in major tournaments. Rublev has tried ten times to reach a Grand Slam quarterfinal – and ten times he has failed to get past this hurdle.

Rublev can attack the second serve

His last preparatory tournament on grass did not go exactly as planned. Rublev was eliminated in Halle after the second round. Nevertheless, the former top-five player quickly found his feet in the prestigious tournament in London. So far, the winner of the Doha tournament (February 2025) has played many good service games and won 82 percent of his points after his first serve.

Rublev has been particularly dangerous when his opponent has had to play a second serve, which has been the case quite often for Alcaraz so far. Only the Spaniard himself (78) has won more second serve return points than his opponent (77) in this tournament.

A victory for the Russian is rather unlikely given the Rublev – Alcaraz odds. However, it cannot be ruled out that his energetic forehand could force an exciting and intense match – provided the 27-year-old can continue to manage his nerves and emotions.

Carlos Alcaraz – Statistics & current form

Never before in his career has the Spaniard remained unbeaten in more consecutive matches than he has at the moment. His third-round victory over Jan-Lennard Struff (3:1) extended Alcaraz’s winning streak to 21 matches. Furthermore, the two-time defending champion has won his last 17 matches at Wimbledon.

The 22-year-old has not lost a single match on tour since April 2025. Prior to that, the five-time Grand Slam champion had also won several matches in a row. “Carlitos” can now look back on 30 wins from his previous 31 matches.

With his second triumph at the preparatory tournament at London’s Queens Club, the title favorite has reinforced his love for playing on grass. However, this may have gone a little too far in the tournament so far. In contrast to Rublev (just under 8 hours), Alcaraz has spent considerably more time on the courts of the All England Club (almost 9.5 hours).

Alcaraz is not Sinner

While Jannik Sinner marched through the first rounds of Wimbledon in his typical style, barely conceding any games to his vastly outclassed opponents, Alcaraz is once again following a different path. The Spaniard took creative breaks and played twelve sets in three matches.

Alcaraz likes to drop at least one set. The Spaniard has lost a set in 13 of his 21 Wimbledon matches. From the perspective of the world number two, however, this rarely leads to defeat. His first-round match against Fabio Fognini (3:2) went the full distance – his 15th five-set thriller in his still young career.

Alcaraz has won 14 of these 15 five-set duels. He has thus equalled the record set by Mats Wilander, who was previously the only player to have won 14 of his first 15 Grand Slam five-set matches. We are predicting four or five sets in the Rublev vs. Alcaraz match.

Andrey Rublev – Carlos Alcaraz  Head to head / H2H Balance

In the past calendar year, two of the three direct duels took place. Alcaraz won the meeting in the final ATP Finals (2-0), but lost in Madrid at the beginning of May (1-2). While the Spaniard won the two matches on hard courts, the only pairing on clay went to Rublev. In London, the two top players will compete against each other on grass for the first time. According to the Rublev vs. Alcaraz odds with clear advantages in favor of the defending champion.

Andrey Rublev – Carlos Alcaraz  Tip

Rublev’s power and resilience should give him the opportunity to take advantage of any weakness or low serve rate of Alcaraz. Overall, however, the Russian’s toolbox should not be sufficiently equipped to be able to seriously threaten the defending champion.

Especially with his joy of playing, the sensitive stops, Alcaraz can bring his 27-year-old opponent out of rhythm. Nevertheless, Rublev has made a positive impression in his previous games of this year’s Wimbledon edition, which has led us to the Rublev vs. Alcaraz tip on “Rublev to win at least one set”.