Will the world number 1 flex her muscles?
World number one Aryna Sabalenka has once again stormed through the women’s singles at the Australian Open. In the semifinals, the Belarusian was on court for just 90 minutes against Iva Jovic (WTA 27), once again did not drop a single service game, and won 83 percent of points on her first serve and 52 percent of return points.
Accordingly, the tip for Aryna Sabalenka against Elina Svitolina is that the 27-year-old will make it to the Australian Open final for the fourth year in a row, where she has won 25 of her last 26 singles matches.
Aryna Sabalenka’s dominance is also evident in the fact that she recorded 23 of those 25 victories without losing a single set. Not a single opponent has been able to take a set off her this year, which is also due to the fact that the Belarusian has won 20 tiebreaks in a row at Grand Slam level.
Although Elina Svitolina has performed brilliantly throughout the tournament and is now in the Australian Open semifinals for the first time in her career, we therefore expect a very one-sided affair and find the greatest value in betting on Aryna Sabalenka to score another straight 2-0 victory.
However, after Elina Svitolina already defeated Mirra Andreeva 2-0 in the round of 16, the 2018 world champion also recently demonstrated her power when she sent Coco Gauff (WTA 3) home 2-0 in just 59 minutes in the quarterfinals (6-1 and 6-2). If the 31-year-old Ukrainian has a similarly good day and comes anywhere near her 65 percent return point win rate, she could certainly have a chance. However, if the match proceeds normally, we don’t think the Ukrainian will win a single set.
Aryna Sabalenka – Elina Svitolina Head-to-head comparison / H2H statistics
Head to head: 5:1
The two players have met six times so far, with Aryna Sabalenka coming out on top in five of those encounters, including the last four in a row. Only in the semifinals of a small tournament in Strasbourg in September 2020 did Elina Svitolina manage to narrowly defeat the Belarusian 2:1. Most recently, the world number one beat the Ukrainian twice in a row 2-0.
Aryna Sabalenka – Elina Svitolina Tip
Although the 31-year-old Ukrainian, who despite her title at the 2018 WTA Finals is still considered somewhat imperfect and has never reached the final of a Grand Slam tournament before, played brilliantly in the last few rounds, our prediction for Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elina Svitolina is clearly in favor of the Belarusian. The world number one has won 25 of her last 26 singles matches at the hard court Grand Slam in Melbourne Park, dropping only two (!) sets in total during those 25 victories. Although Svitolina is considered one of the best returners on the WTA Tour, the Ukrainian may once again be unable to cope with Sabalenka’s powerful serve.
Against this backdrop, we find the greatest value in betting on the Belarusian to secure her ticket to the final at Melbourne Park for the fourth year in a row with a straight 2-0 victory.
