Will the defending champion leave nothing to chance?
A year ago, defending champion Jannik Sinner’s path to another Australian Open title led through Ben Shelton. In the semifinals of the 2025 edition, the Italian beat the 23-year-old American 3-0, but had to go to a tiebreak in the first set. Now, too, the odds are in favor of Sinner advancing in the match between Ben Shelton and Jannik Sinner, especially since the match is scheduled for the night session. This should make it much easier for the South Tyrolean, who struggled with the intense heat several times in the third round, in our opinion.
Nevertheless, Ben Shelton, who beat Casper Ruud (ATP 13) 3-1 in the round of 16 and only allowed three break points against the Dane, two of which he was able to save, certainly has the potential to challenge the defending champion. It is striking in this context that although Jannik Sinner has won six of his seven singles matches against the 23-year-old American so far, every single encounter between the two athletes has been decided in a tiebreak – mostly with the better outcome for the player from Sesto. Accordingly, the odds are now high that more than 0.5 sets in this quarterfinal will go to a tiebreak.
Although the world number seven from America is of course very close to winning a set once he forces a tiebreak against the defending champion, we still consider another clean 3-0 victory for the dominant Italian to be the most likely outcome in terms of the overall result. For the 24-year-old from Sesto to win this quarterfinal without losing a set, the Bet-at-home app offers odds of 1.70 for Ben Shelton against Jannik Sinner.
Ben Shelton – Jannik Sinner Head-to-head record
Head to head: 1:6
Seven singles matches have already taken place between the two athletes, and in six of the seven cases, Jannik Sinner has prevailed over Ben Shelton – including a year ago here at Melbourne Park, when the two players even faced each other in the semifinals. The first set went to a tiebreak. In the end, however, the Sextner won in three straight sets (7:6, 6:2 and 6:2).
Ben Shelton – Jannik Sinner Tip
All in all, our prediction for Ben Shelton vs. Jannik Sinner is another victory for the player from Sesto, who struggled with the heat Down Under in the third round but will now benefit again from the fact that the match is scheduled for the night session in this quarterfinal. It will therefore be difficult for the young American to avoid another defeat against the defending champion. A year ago, the 23-year-old lost 0-3 to the Italian in the Australian Open semifinals.
Nevertheless, the American has a strong serve, which he should be able to use to his advantage throughout an entire set. It is no coincidence that in all seven previous encounters between the two athletes, at least one set has been decided in a tiebreak. Once again, the tip for over 0.5 tiebreaks in this quarterfinal is clearly the most likely outcome.
