Will Alcaraz quickly find his rhythm on serve?
Wimbledon is not necessarily known for its loud crowd. However, the spectators could make an exception for our Norrie vs. Alcaraz tip. The last local hero will face the two-time defending champion and hopes for a unique evening.
The last remaining Briton has to settle for the role of underdog in the Norrie vs. Alcaraz prediction, but he should be able to come to terms with that. The 29-year-old has steadily built up his confidence in recent months and quickly put his poor start to the 2025 calendar year behind him.
Cameron Norrie – Statistics & current form
The first Grand Slam of the calendar year takes place in Australia. It’s a long journey for many professionals, including Cameron Norrie. Expectations were not too high, but his first-round exit against Matteo Berrettini (1-3) was still a disappointment. The 29-year-old has struggled to get going at the start of the year.
Until the tournament in Geneva, the left-hander had a negative record of 10-11 wins. Since then, however, the former top 10 player’s form has improved dramatically. Norrie was only eliminated in the semi-finals against Novak Djokovic (1:2) and advanced to the fourth round at the French Open.
At the All England Club, Norrie reached the quarterfinals for the second time after several intense matches. In 2022, he even extended his run to the semifinals. The stoic worker is dreaming of the same in this edition, even if the Norrie vs. Alcaraz odds suggest otherwise.
Norrie is a true competitor
His record since that tournament in Geneva is 12-4. Norrie is known for giving his all in every challenge and pushing himself to his physical limits even on weaker days. The Brit proved this mental attitude most recently in the fourth round against Jarry.
Although the Chilean hit 46 aces, Norrie withstood the pressure and defended all 25 of his service games. The real strength of the Brit’s game lies in long rallies and good returns. This is also reflected in the statistics from this year’s Wimbledon.
Norrie has won the most second serve receiving points (105) of all participants. In addition, the local hero often manages to put his opponent’s first serve under pressure. Only six other professionals have won more first serve receiving points than Norrie (91) at the classic grass court tournament in London.
Carlos Alcaraz – Statistics & current form
However, these figures do not change Alcaraz’s status as favorite. The Spaniard himself leads the latter statistic (101). Nevertheless, we rule out a straight-sets victory for the two-time defending champion in our Norrie – Alcaraz prediction.
The five-time Grand Slam winner has missed his first serve too often in his previous matches and has dropped at least one set in four of his last five matches. His 22-match winning streak does not protect the world number two from losing a set in our Norrie vs. Alcaraz prediction.
“Carlitos” should not drop more than one set in the quarterfinals against the local hero. His fourth-round victory can be seen as a warning to his rivals. The Spaniard served at a high level for the first time in the third Grand Slam of 2025, hitting 22 aces with a serve percentage of 82 percent.
Alcaraz has a date with history
So far, Bjorn Borg is the only player to have achieved the unlikely double of Roland Garros and Wimbledon in consecutive years. The switch from clay to grass is considered particularly challenging in the tennis world. Alcaraz could become the second professional to make this transition perfectly this year.
However, the Spaniard sometimes relies too much on his enthusiasm for the game, which can lead to brief periods of weakness during a match. Norrie will try to limit the title favorite’s creative moments and test the Spaniard’s patience with his own rhythm.
The world number two now has 18 consecutive wins at the All England Club. However, another statistic is decisive for the Norrie – Alcaraz tip. Alcaraz has not won seven of his previous nine Wimbledon matches without dropping a set.
Cameron Norrie – Carlos Alcaraz Head-to-head record / H2H record
In the past, the two quarter-finalists have crossed paths on numerous occasions. Alcaraz leads the head-to-head comparison with 4:2 wins, but has dropped at least one set in three of the last four encounters and lost the most recent duel 1:2 (2023).
Cameron Norrie – Carlos Alcaraz Tip
We are rewarding Norrie for his fighting spirit and believe he can win a set in the Norrie vs. Alcaraz tip. The Brit could benefit from the support of the crowd and use it to his advantage if the two-time defending champion experiences a weak phase.
In addition, we want to see Alcaraz maintain consistency on his serve and improve his first serve percentage to a more advantageous level, as he did against Andrey Rublev. Until then, we are going with the Norrie vs. Alcaraz tip of “Norrie to win at least one set.”