Is Carlitos marching toward the group victory?
Everything at this year’s ATP Finals in Turin is focused on the showdown between Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner, which will also decide who will finish the year as world number one. Both players won their opening matches and now it’s up to the reigning world number one to take the lead on Tuesday afternoon.
In the duel between Carlos Alcaraz and Taylor Fritz, the tip is that the Spanish superstar will also win his second match in the Jimmy Connors Group, and the omens are very good. After all, the head-to-head record stands at 3-0 in favor of the 22-year-old, who has also won both previous hard court duels with the Californian 2-0.
Taylor Fritz is not completely harmless and won his opening match against Lorenzo Musetti 2-0 (6-4, 6-3), without dropping a single service game and winning an impressive 63 percent of points on his second serve. In fact, it was only his 34th singles victory in 81 matches against a top 10 player in his career. Especially against opponents in the top ranks, the 28-year-old American has mostly lacked the final percentage points. In our Carlos Alcaraz vs. Taylor Fritz prediction, we therefore do not believe that he can trouble the world number one and recommend betting on the favorite to secure another 2-0 victory.
It is very interesting to note that even in this year’s Grand Slam semifinal, which both players competed in on the fast grass courts of the venerable All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club as part of the Wimbledon Championships (Alcaraz won 3-1), not a single set went to a tiebreak. So if you’re looking for an interesting side bet that doesn’t rule out a 2-1 victory for the Spaniard or even a surprise win for the Californian, you might consider betting that not a single set will go to a tiebreak in this match either.
Carlos Alcaraz – Taylor Fritz Head-to-head record
Head to head: 3-0
The two players have crossed paths three times on the world’s tennis courts so far, and in all three cases Carlos Alcaraz has prevailed over the American. Taylor Fritz was only able to take one set off the Spaniard in the semifinals of this year’s Wimbledon Championships on the fast London grass. The only two matches on hard court were both won in straight sets by the 22-year-old. Interestingly, in three meetings and a total of eight sets, there has never been a tiebreak between the two athletes.
Carlos Alcaraz – Taylor Fritz Tip
Even the best bookmakers are clearly favoring Carlos Alcaraz over Taylor Fritz, with odds of just 1.23 for the world number one’s victory in the practical Bet-at-home app. This is not only due to the Spaniard’s flawless record in direct comparison with the American, but also to the fact that the Californian has rarely been able to keep up with the superstars of the ATP Tour in his career. Although the 28-year-old is undoubtedly an outstanding player who is rightly established in the top 10 of the ATP world rankings, he has always been a few percentage points short of the top.
We expect the difference to be noticeable again this time around and therefore recommend betting on Carlos Alcaraz against Taylor Fritz, with the 22-year-old Spaniard winning the second group match of the 2025 ATP Finals 2-0. Bet-at-home offers odds of 1.65 for this, which we are betting on with six out of ten units.
