Will Tommy Paul show his best tennis?

Both opponents are still undefeated at the 2026 Australian Open. That will change in the Carlos Alcaraz vs. Tommy Paul tip for at least one of the two athletes. The American may be a little fresher going into the fourth-round match against the world number one.

So far, the 28-year-old is quite satisfied with his performances at this year’s Happy Slam. Paul ended his previous season in September – injuries plagued the man who had entered the world’s top 10 for the first time at the beginning of the year. Even before our Carlos Alcaraz vs. Tommy Paul prediction, the American has already impressed again.

Thanks to the longer break, the world number 20 started the 2026 season early. After a narrow defeat in Brisbane against Mpetshi Perricard, Paul advanced to the semifinals in Adelaide. This playing practice helped him enormously in the early rounds of the Australian Open.

The best sports betting providers do not give the American realistic chances of winning in their Carlos Alcaraz vs. Tommy Paul betting odds. If the former world number 3 in the junior rankings loses without winning a set, there would be no more than 1.75 times the amount.

Together with his long-time coach Brad Stine, the 2023 Australian Open semifinalist will prepare meticulously for the favored Spaniard’s game. Under normal circumstances, Alcaraz should emerge victorious from this duel – as he has already done in five matches against the American.

However, we believe Paul will have at least one strong phase in the match and definitely think he is capable of winning a set against the six-time Grand Slam champion.

Carlos Alcaraz – Tommy Paul Head-to-head record

There have already been seven head-to-head matches between the two athletes. Paul won two of the first three duels, but then lost four consecutive encounters with the ATP world number one. Alcaraz won the last two matches without losing a set – both took place on clay.

On the other surfaces on the tour, Paul often put up stronger resistance. Outside of clay, the American won at least one set in four of five matches against the 24-time ATP title winner. Paul is unlikely to be able to stop the Spanish top player on his mission to win the career Grand Slam, but he can certainly challenge him.

Carlos Alcaraz – Tommy Paul Tip

Both players have the arsenal to challenge their opponents’ service games. Over the past 52 weeks, Alcaraz (2nd) and Paul (5th) have been among the five best returners on the entire tour. On hard courts, the American is a particularly dangerous returner (rating: 159.0 – 4th place).

In addition, unlike his Spanish opponent, the 28-year-old has already reached the semifinals at the Australian Open. His experience is valuable and his confidence has been thoroughly built up in 13 matches won against top 10 players.

However, the six-time Grand Slam champion’s role as favorite is no coincidence. Alcaraz is already considered one of the best players ever to step onto a tennis court. With his third-round victory over Corentin Moutet, Alcaraz equaled a record set by Björn Borg, winning 87 of his first 100 Grand Slam matches.