Will the Muscovite be rewarded for his strong run?
With his 2-0 victory in the semifinals, Daniil Medvedev not only ended Carlos Alcaraz’s unbeaten streak but also ensured that the showdown between the Spaniard and Jannik Sinner could not proceed to the next round. Instead, we now have a final that decided a Masters title three years ago at the Sunshine Double.
However, that was on the other side of the United States, namely at the Miami Masters, when the Russian defeated the Italian in straight sets 2-0 (7-5, 6-3). Even now, in the match between Daniil Medvedev and Jannik Sinner, betting on the favored player from Sextner to win the tournament is by no means a sure thing, especially since the South Tyrolean, while leading in the head-to-head record, has already lost seven of the 15 singles matches against the Muscovite.
The fact that the Indian Wells Masters final is unlikely to be a one-sided affair is also supported by the tournament performance of both players, who advanced to the final with five straight 2-0 victories and, in particular, have been nearly flawless on their own serve. Jannik Sinner allowed only a single break point against heavyweight Alexander Zverev (ATP 4), which he saved, and scored on 64 percent of his second serves. Daniil Medvedev, in turn, reached 74 percent on his second serve against Carlos Alcaraz (ATP 1) and surrendered only a single service game to the Spaniard. Consequently, it makes sense to bet that the Russian will win at least one set in this final.
The risk of a tiebreak is certainly very high, so we can’t quite understand why the top bookmakers are offering high odds on over 0.5 tiebreaks in the Daniil Medvedev vs. Jannik Sinner match. After all, sets in which both players hold all six service games seem almost inevitable.
Those who aren’t afraid to take a risk can also bet on the Russian’s victory in the final via the bet365 app at odds of 4.33. Value emerges with this long-shot bet starting at a probability of 23.2 percent—and following his stellar performances in Indian Wells, we would even give the Muscovite a chance of up to 33 percent to win in his third Indian Wells final, even though he lost his first two finals in California.
Daniil Medvedev – Jannik Sinner Head-to-Head Record
Head to Head: 7:8
The two athletes have faced each other 15 times already, and with eight wins, Jannik Sinner leads the head-to-head record by a very narrow margin. He has been defeated by the Muscovite seven times—though five of those losses came in tournaments held indoors. And, of course, in the legendary quarterfinal of the 2024 Wimbledon Championships, which went the full five sets on grass. In their last three consecutive matches, however, the Italian came out on top—most recently in the group stage of the 2024 ATP Finals with a clean 2-0 victory (6-3, 6-4).
Daniil Medvedev – Jannik Sinner Prediction
On paper, Jannik Sinner is, of course, the clear favorite going into the match. However, the underdog role wasn’t a problem for the Russian in the semifinals either, as he knocked the tournament’s top favorite, Carlos Alcaraz, out of the competition. And how! The Muscovite recorded a straight-sets 2-0 victory over Carlos Alcaraz (6-3, 7-6) in just 98 minutes, winning a surreal 74 percent of points on his second serve and keeping his cool even in the tiebreak. This makes it all the more surprising that the betting odds for Daniil Medvedev vs. Jannik Sinner are so lopsided, with the now 30-year-old—who has already won six Masters tournaments—no longer being given much of a chance.
We therefore consider the prediction that Daniil Medvedev will win at least one set in this final against Jannik Sinner to be reasonable.
