Will the quarterfinals prove insurmountable for the Australian?
From a German perspective, there is certainly still a touch of nostalgia, as there could have been a German duel between Alexander Zverev and Daniel Altmaier in the quarterfinals. However, the DTB stars had to make way for the two players who are now fighting for a ticket to the semifinals, which will likely take place against defending champion Jannik Sinner, who is considered the top favorite at the 2025 US Open. Among the top bookmakers, the odds for Felix Auger-Aliassime against Alex de Minaur favor the Australian’s victory.
Alex de Minaur’s supposed favoritism is certainly due to the standing of both athletes in the ATP world rankings. The man from Down Under is currently eighth, while his Canadian opponent is 19 places behind in 27th. Nevertheless, this favorite status is quickly refuted. Although Felix Auger-Aliassime “only” leads 3-2 in head-to-head matches, the Canadian has won all three previous matches against Alex de Minaur on hard court without losing a set, which is why we find great value in betting on the supposed underdog to win.
From a purely mathematical point of view, betting on the Canadian to win makes perfect sense. Only his world ranking speaks in favor of the Australian. Felix Auger-Aliassime, on the other hand, has won more tournaments in 2025 (two), has a clearly better record on hard court, leads Alex de Minaur 3-0 (6-0 in sets) in head-to-head matches on this surface, and has also had a much tougher path at Flushing Meadows so far, facing opponents such as Alexander Zverev and Andrey Rublev.
In our opinion, the probability of the Canadian winning is at least 60 percent. However, because the Bet365 app lists odds of 2.30 for Felix Auger-Aliassime to beat Alex de Minaur, which is already in the value range with a 43.5 percent probability of victory, there is practically no alternative to betting on the Zverev conqueror from Montreal.
Felix Auger-Aliassime – Alex de Minaur Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
Head to head: 3:2
The two players first faced each other in 2017 and 2018 on the Challenger Tour, before meeting three more times during their time together on the ATP Tour. That makes a total of five matches with a relatively even record – three matches went to Felix Auger-Aliassime, two to Alex de Minaur. On closer inspection, however, the head-to-head comparison takes on an interesting twist when you look at the surface. While the Australian won both matches on clay, the Canadian won all three hard court matches without losing a single set.
Felix Auger-Aliassime – Alex de Minaur Tip
Another factor influencing the odds in Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Alex de Minaur is the fact that the quarterfinals of a Grand Slam tournament represent a kind of magical barrier for the man from Down Under, who was among the top eight players here at Flushing Meadows in 2020 and 2024. He has played a total of five quarterfinal matches at Grand Slams. He has not won a single one of these five matches. Felix Auger-Aliassime, on the other hand, won his only US Open quarterfinal to date in 2021, when he knocked none other than Carlos Alcaraz out of the competition.
Nevertheless, we can well imagine that this quarterfinal will be hard-fought and will most likely be decided in the fourth or even fifth set. This means that undecided bettors could well bet on VBET at odds of 1.50 on over 3.5 sets. Ultimately, however, we find the odds on the Canadian winning to be too high to pass up.
For the world number 27 to reach the US Open semifinals for the first time since 2021, Felix Auger-Aliassime is available at odds of 2.30 against Alex de Minaur, which we are betting on with four units at Bet365.
