Will Auger-Aliassime overtake Musetti in the live race?
The Rolex Shanghai Masters is more than just a stop on the ATP Tour calendar. The race for the available tickets to the ATP Finals is entering its final stages. You’ll find drama on the court and a detailed analysis in our Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Lorenzo Musetti tip.
A magnificent run to the semifinals of the 2025 US Open has put the Canadian back in contention for a ticket to the ATP Finals. Since the beginning of August, FAA has won ten of twelve matches – his only two defeats during this period were both against Jannik Sinner. The momentum in the Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Lorenzo Musetti prediction clearly lies with the 25-year-old.
The styles of the two opponents are fundamentally different. On the one hand, there is a man with hard and precise serves who likes to keep rallies short and has posted one of the ten best service ratings on the entire tour over the last 52 weeks (285.8).
Opposite him is Musetti, an Italian with finesse, sensitivity in his racket, and a penchant for changing the rhythm of the rally. It’s not just the bookmakers with cashout who favor the 23-year-old in their Felix Auger-Aliassime – Lorenzo Musetti odds. The rest of the bookmakers also tend to give Musetti a slight advantage.
Following the last Grand Slam of the calendar year, both opponents have taken different paths. Auger-Aliassime took a short break and is playing his first tournament since the US Open in Shanghai. Musetti has worked his way through a grueling Asian swing. In Chengdu, the Italian suffered his fifth consecutive final defeat.
Auger-Aliassime – Musetti Head-to-head record
There have been seven meetings between the two tennis pros so far. The Canadian won the first one in 2021. Overall, Musetti has a slight edge in the head-to-head comparison (4-3) and has also won the last two matches against FAA. In the 2025 calendar year, the 23-year-old narrowly won the only match at the ATP Masters in Miami (2-1).
However, when filtered by duels per surface, things get more interesting. Auger-Aliassime has won two of the three encounters on hard courts and leads quite clearly in the comparison of sets won on this particular surface (5:2). In addition, the Canadian has already won two titles on hard courts this year (seven in total – all on hard courts).
Auger-Aliassime – Musetti Tip
The circumstances are more favorable for the Canadian, who has been in brilliant form since August (10-2 wins) and is well known for his preference for hard courts. In this calendar year alone, Auger-Aliassime has won 27 matches on hard courts around the world (10 losses).
Musetti has won no more than 18 matches on hard courts in the previous months of 2025 (also 10 losses). However, the Italian has a much better record at Masters level this season (19-7 wins; FAA stands at 6-6).
However, the longer Asian swing has taken its toll on the 23-year-old, while Auger-Aliassime started the Shanghai Masters well-rested and won his two previous matches confidently and without losing a set. If there is a tiebreak, the Canadian would also have a clear advantage.
Auger-Aliassime has a tiebreak record of 20-11 this season. Musetti was at least able to win the only tiebreak in his previous match against Luciano Darderi and even his season record (11-11). Nevertheless, we give FAA a slight advantage and expect the Canadian to advance to the next round.
