How difficult will Big Foe make it for the German?
Alexander Zverev is somewhat at odds with the Masters tournament in Indian Wells, California, having won “only” 15 of his 24 singles matches here, which is his weakest record at Masters level, but the Olympic champion could now reach the quarterfinals for the third time in his career.
Provided, of course, that Frances Tiafoe’s tip for Alexander Zverev’s third consecutive victory comes true, with the Hamburg native now facing another “local hero,” although Big Foe, unlike Zverev’s last opponent Brandon Nakashima, is not from California but from Maryland.
The crowd’s sympathies are likely to lie clearly with the American, who, however, goes into this round of 16 with a devastating record. Frances Tiafoe’s win rate against top 10 players is generally anything but intimidating. The world number 22 has won just 13 of 54 matches (24.1 percent). Against Alexander Zverev in particular, Big Foe has only managed one win in nine meetings. Although Sascha dropped a set in the last round and struggled to a narrow 2-1 victory in an intense match lasting over two hours and 32 minutes and 35 (!) games, we therefore consider it most expedient to bet on a clean 2-0 victory for the Hamburg native in this American-German round of 16 match.
What tipped the scales in the thriller in the last round was once again the German’s stable serve, scoring 81 percent with his first serve and still 46 percent with his second (Nakashima: 39 percent). As a result, Sascha lost only one of his 17 service games across all three sets. However, Big Foe also has the potential to win all six service games in a set.
Frances Tiafoe – Alexander Zverev Head-to-head record
Head to head: 1:8
The two athletes have crossed paths nine times so far, and the resulting record speaks for itself: Alexander Zverev prevailed in eight of the nine matches, only losing to the American at the Western & Southern Open in 2017 after leading 1-0 in sets. Frances Tiafoe has now been waiting for another victory against Sascha for six meetings.
Frances Tiafoe – Alexander Zverev Tip
The top bookmakers’ betting odds for Frances Tiafoe against Alexander Zverev clearly favor the former Olympic champion from Germany. This is no surprise, as Sascha has won eight of the nine singles matches against his American challenger, who has been denied major titles in the past because he has won just 13 of his 54 singles matches against top 10 players. Sascha’s trump card is his incredibly strong serve. Despite a narrow 2-1 victory in the last round against California native Brandon Nakashima (ATP 30), the Hamburg native only lost one service game in that match.
For Big Foe, the challenge is not only to somehow break the German, but above all to not let anything slip on his own serve. A single break per set should be enough for Sascha to win the set, which is why the prediction that Frances Tiafoe will defeat Alexander Zverev with a straight 2-0 victory in the round of 16 offers the greatest value overall.
