End of the road for Struffi?
Jan-Lennard Struff is the third and last German to qualify for the men’s singles at the US Open. Although the current number 144 in the ATP world rankings was still considered to have a good chance of advancing in his opening match against Mackenzie McDonald, his journey was expected to end in the second round against Holger Rune at the latest. Instead, Struffi triumphed 3-2 against the Dane after three hours and 28 minutes. Even now, with Frances Tiafoe facing Jan-Lennard Struff, the tip that there will be nothing more for the German to gain seems to be a safe bet. Or does the 35-year-old still have a few extra aces up his sleeve?
One thing is clear: the Warsteiner needs another great day. After all, Frances Tiafoe loves the US Open. The man from Maryland has already won 24 of his 34 singles matches here and has always reached at least the round of 16 in the last five years. In two of the last three years, “Big Foe” even made it to the semifinals. And yet, it wouldn’t be the first time that Jan-Lennard Struff has defeated the American in a Grand Slam tournament, which is why we think it’s quite interesting to bet on the German winning at least one set.
We don’t think it’s very likely that it will really be enough for the next sensation in the end. Compared to world number 11 Holger Rune, whom Jan-Lennard Struff eliminated in the second round and who fell behind especially on his second serve, which he was only able to convert into a point in 45 percent of all cases, Frances Tiafoe simply serves too strongly. The American not only won 86 percent of points on his first serve in his 3-1 victory over his compatriot Martin Damm (ATP 431) in the second round, but also an outstanding 74 percent on his second serve, meaning he did not drop a single service game.
It is therefore interesting to consider betting specifically on another 3-1 victory for the local hero. The practical Bet-at-home app offers odds of 3.60 for Frances Tiafoe against Jan-Lennard Struff, which promise good value, although the risk is of course high.
Frances Tiafoe – Jan-Lennard Struff Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
Head to head: 2:1
The two players have crossed paths three times so far, with Frances Tiafoe prevailing over Jan-Lennard Struff in two of those three matches, including in the final of the 2023 Boss Open in Stuttgart. However, the only time the two players faced each other in a Grand Slam tournament, Jan-Lennard Struff prevailed over the American. In the first round of the 2020 French Open, the score was 3:2 in favor of the Warstein native.
Frances Tiafoe – Jan-Lennard Struff Tip
There is little to suggest that Frances Tiafoe vs. Jan-Lennard Struff will result in another surprise victory for the German. Ultimately, the American’s serve is too strong, having only dropped two service games in his clean 3-0 opening victory and fending off all three of his opponent’s break points in the second round. On the fast hard court at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, it is likely to be difficult for the German to break the local hero, which means that the risk of a tiebreak is very high. The Bet365 app is offering odds of just 1.22 that at least one set will be decided in a tiebreak.
Nevertheless, we think the 35-year-old German, who has already successfully fought his way through qualifying, has a good chance of winning at least one set in this match, although the American has been simply too convincing at Flushing Meadows in the past for it to be enough for a major upset.
Nevertheless, the odds for Struffi to win a set are 1.45 in Frances Tiafoe vs. Jan-Lennard Struff, which we are betting on at Interwetten with six out of ten units.
