Will the player from Kempen cause a minor upset?

The Wimbledon Championships are a very special tennis tournament because the fast grass courts allow a very special breed of players to shine once a year. We are talking about the so-called serve giants of the ATP Tour, who are almost impossible to return with their concentrated power. At 2.03 meters tall, Canadian Gabriel Diallo is one such serve giant, which is why the bookmakers seem to think that Gabriel Diallo is a safe bet to win against Daniel Altmaier.

In fact, as a clay court expert, Daniel Altmaier is the exact opposite of the serve giants. The Kempen native is an outstanding return player, but the nature of the grass court, where the ball loses almost all of its speed on impact, largely robs him of his greatest strength. Nevertheless, other factors must also be taken into account when predicting the outcome of Gabriel Diallo vs. Daniel Altmaier.

For example, experience – and that clearly favors the German, who has won both of his previous encounters with Gabriel Diallo. These include a 2-0 victory last November in the Davis Cup tie between Germany and Canada, when the two athletes faced each other on an indoor hard court, which also has a very fast surface. In addition, the young Canadian is always vulnerable when he has to get past his second serve.

Gabriel Diallo – Statistics & current form

The 23-year-old Canadian Gabriel Diallo is appearing more and more regularly on the ATP Tour in his third year and has now finally won his first singles title. This triumph came – how could it be otherwise for a serve giant with an imposing height of 2.03 meters? – at a grass court tournament. He was just successful two weeks ago at the ATP 250 tournament in ‘s-Hertogenbosch, Netherlands, where he won all five matches 2-0.

Particularly impressive: on his way to the title, he beat two players from the current top 25 of the ATP world rankings, Karen Khachanov (ATP 24) and Ugo Humbert (ATP 20), climbing to 41st place himself and celebrating a new career high. After failing to make it past the second qualifying round of the Wimbledon Championships in each of the last two years, the man from Montreal secured a direct ticket to the main draw this time around.

Gabriel Diallo with a strong record this year

Also due to his recent tournament victory in the Netherlands, Apple Pay betting providers believe that Gabriel Diallo has a very good chance of advancing against Daniel Altmaier, even though he suffered a 0-2 defeat against Tallon Griekspoor in the quarterfinals of the final preparatory tournament in Mallorca last week.

Nevertheless, the 23-year-old has an impressive record of 19 wins from 32 singles matches this year and is therefore almost certain to secure a place at the US Open later in the year, where he made his debut a year ago and advanced to the third round at the first attempt. However, that will be difficult, at least here at Wimbledon, because even if he gets through the first round, he is likely to face another serving giant in Taylor Fritz in the second match, who may then prove to be a step too far.

Daniel Altmaier – Statistics & current form

26-year-old German Daniel Altmaier recently played brilliantly at the French Open, reaching the round of 16 for the second time after 2020. It was the Kempen native’s second appearance in a Grand Slam round of 16, which allowed him to return to 59th in the ATP world rankings. This also meant that Alberto Mancini’s protégé did not have to go through qualifying at Wimbledon.

However, the Grand Slam tournament on grass at the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club has never been a particularly happy hunting ground for the 26-year-old, who has won only one of his four singles matches here. However, that was exactly one year ago, also in the first round, when he came back from 0-1 and 1-2 down to defeat British wild card Arthur Fery 3-2. That showed exactly what Daniel Altmaier is all about: his superb return and comeback qualities.

Daniel Altmaier has always defeated Gabriel Diallo so far

Even now, the unseeded German could have had a much tougher draw in the first round. A big server on grass is not a good matchup for the clay court specialist per se. However, his Canadian opponent is not only very inexperienced, but has also lost both of his previous singles matches against the German. This makes it all the more remarkable that the 26-year-old is going into his opening match as such a huge underdog.

At Winamax, where new customers can get a €10 free bet on top of the usual welcome offer with our exclusive Winamax promo code, the odds for Gabriel Diallo against Daniel Altmaier are 4.10 for a German victory, which is definitely in the value range. With a win rate of 25 percent in general at Wimbledon and a win rate of 100 percent against Gabriel Diallo in particular, the Kempen native should certainly be given 20 to 25 percent – and with odds of 4.10, that already promises a positive expected value…

Gabriel Diallo – Daniel Altmaier Head-to-head comparison / H2H record

Head to head: 0:2

The two athletes have crossed paths twice before. In 2023, they faced each other in Sarasota at a Challenger tournament, where Gabriel Diallo had to throw in the towel after trailing 2-5 in the first set, before the rematch came last fall in the Davis Cup quarterfinals. Daniel Altmaier also prevailed on indoor hard court, beating the Canadian 2:0 (7:6 and 6:4).

Gabriel Diallo – Daniel Altmaier Tip

The best bookmakers are clearly favoring the young Canadian in the opening match between Gabriel Diallo and Daniel Altmaier. Standing at 2.03 meters tall, he is likely to win an above-average number of games with his serve alone, giving him a considerable advantage. However, the German has won both previous encounters with the 23-year-old, who is also breaking new ground at the venerable All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club, where he has qualified for the Wimbledon men’s singles for the first time in his career.

Gabriel Diallo’s prediction for Daniel Altmaier is therefore that the Kempen native, who has won only one singles match at Wimbledon in his career, will at least not go down without a fight. We don’t rule out a victory for the German, but we think the best possible balance between risk, probability, and potential winnings is to bet on him winning at least two sets.