No chance for the local hero?
Jannik Sinner won his last 15 singles matches in a row at the Australian Open, lifted the coveted Norman Brookes Challenge Cup in both 2024 and 2025, and is now the clear favorite to win the 2026 Australian Open – ahead of world number one Carlos Alcaraz. No wonder, then, that in James Duckworth vs. Jannik Sinner, the tip for an unchallenged victory for the Sextner is rated with such low odds as is the case.
For us, the question arises as to whether, despite the low odds, there is still a certain lack of alternatives when it comes to betting on a quick 3-0 victory for the South Tyrolean, or whether there might even be sufficient value to be found in any outsider bets. But to come to the point: although our suggested tip on Sinner winning without losing a set only promises a positive expected value from a probability of 89 percent, even such a high value must be considered entirely justified. After all, the 24-year-old also won 91 percent of all singles matches in the 2025 calendar year. Moreover, two-thirds of his defeats were against Carlos Alcaraz, and in one of only two other defeats, he had to retire due to injury against Tallon Griekspoor with the score completely open.
It could be argued that James Duckworth has already recorded a victory against Jannik Sinner. However, that duel dates back to 2021, when the then 19-year-old South Tyrolean was still far from his current level and, for example, failed to make it past the first round at the Australian Open. The only other thing in the Australian’s favor is that, as the local hero, he will have the fans behind him.
Meanwhile, the 88th-ranked player in the ATP world rankings has lost two of his first three singles matches in the new year, although he narrowly prevailed 3-2 in a grueling four-and-a-half-hour first-round match against Dino Prizmic (ATP 127). As we expect three clear sets, you could bet on James Duckworth vs. Jannik Sinner at odds of 1.17 via the handy bet365 app that there will be fewer than 0.5 tiebreaks in this match.
James Duckworth – Jannik Sinner Head-to-head record
Head to head: 1:2
The two athletes have crossed paths three times on the tennis courts of the world so far, and James Duckworth has actually already managed to beat Jannik Sinner, who was 19 at the time, 2-0 (6-3, 6-4) in the second round of the 2021 Roger’s Cup in Toronto. However, the other two encounters between the two athletes in October 2020 and October 2021 were both won 2:0 by the player from Sesto, who thus leads the head-to-head comparison with 2:1 victories.
James Duckworth – Jannik Sinner Tip
James Duckworth has yet to win a single title in his long career on the ATP Tour and has won just twelve singles matches in 39 appearances in the men’s singles at the four Grand Slam tournaments. However, when predicting the outcome of James Duckworth vs. Jannik Sinner, it should not be overlooked that half of those twelve wins were achieved here in Melbourne at the Australian Open. However, considering that his second-round opponent is the top favorite to win the tournament, has won his last 15 Australian Open matches in a row, and has not lost a set in 11 of those 15 matches despite facing much higher-ranked opponents, it would be an unprecedented sensation if the Australian were to add a 13th victory to his tally.
Admittedly, the betting odds offered by the top bookmakers for James Duckworth against Jannik Sinner require a high degree of conviction that the South Tyrolean will not let anything slip. Mathematically speaking, however, despite the horrendous odds, there is no value to be found in betting on the Australian to win the match, let alone a set.
We are therefore betting on a 3-0 victory for the South Tyrolean, for which Betano is offering odds of 1.13. As we estimate a probability of around 95 percent that the Sextner will win the match 3-0 at lightning speed, we are going all-in and betting the full ten units. Anyone who bets against the approx.
