Will Demon have to pack his bags after the photo finish?
It was certainly one of the craziest finishes the ATP Finals group stage has ever seen. Alex de Minaur, who had lost his first two group matches, beat Taylor Fritz 2-0 (7-6, 6-3) and, against all odds, still made it to the semifinals. Curiously, if he had won 7-6, 6-4, it would not have been enough and the Californian would have made it to the knockout stage despite his defeat. However, this has now resulted in an uneven matchup, because in all ten cases in which the two opponents have faced each other so far, the South Tyrolean has won, which is why even now, with Jannik Sinner against Alex de Minaur, there is practically no alternative to betting on the world number two.
In fact, the direct comparison between the two athletes could hardly be clearer. Jannik Sinner has won the last 20 (!) sets in a row between the two players without exception. For Demon, who is in the semifinals of the unofficial tennis world championships for the first time on his second attempt, but has still lost five of his six singles matches in Turin, it will probably be impossible to take a set off the player from Sesto. The Sinner vs. de Minaur prediction that the world number two will book his ticket to the final with a clean 2-0 victory, where he is likely to face Carlos Alcaraz in a showdown, is therefore the best option.
Of course, we would love to suggest bets with higher odds for Jannik Sinner against Alex de Minaur, so that there is a little more value on the betting slip. However, that would be completely irresponsible. Although there are only five places between the two players in the ATP world rankings, the gap between them is enormous. This is also reflected in the fact that the Italian currently has a streak of 29 consecutive wins on indoor hard courts.
Jannik Sinner – Alex de Minaur Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
Head to head: 10:0
The two players have already faced each other ten times, and Alex de Minaur has never won a match against the Italian superstar. Only in their very first match, when the two clashed in the quarterfinals of the 2020 Sofia Open in Bulgaria, did the Australian take at least one set off Jannik Sinner. However, the player from Sesto has won the last 20 sets in a row against Demon, including all three in their only meeting in 2025 in the quarterfinals of the Australian Open (6-3, 6-2, and 6-1).
Jannik Sinner – Alex de Minaur Tip
The best bookmakers’ betting odds for Jannik Sinner against Alex de Minaur clearly favor the world number two, who has won all ten of his previous singles matches against the man from Down Under. No wonder, as the Italian now has 29 consecutive wins on indoor hard courts and is almost certain to make it 30, as he faces an opponent against whom he has won the last 20 sets in a row.
As much as we would have liked to present a hot outsider tip with high odds and positive expected value, there is no alternative to predicting a clean 2-0 victory for Jannik Sinner against Alex de Minaur, who – realistically speaking – would have to get injured or simply have a terrible day to miss out on a place in the final. The tip for a straight 2-0 win can be placed at Interwetten at odds of 1.30. We are investing nine out of ten possible units in this tip.
