Will Carlitos finally become Sinner’s nemesis?

At first, the 138th edition of The Championships seemed to be shaping up to be a surprising tournament after no fewer than 13 of the 32 seeded players in the men’s singles were knocked out in the first round – more than in any Grand Slam tournament since the 2004 Australian Open. But then the hoped-for dream final between the world number one and the two-time defending champion did materialize. In this article, we analyze where the best value bet can be found in the match between Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz.

In the end, our Wimbledon 2025 tournament winner prediction proved to be correct: the two athletes who were considered the absolute favorites in the run-up to the tournament will now face each other in the grand final. They just played each other for the Grand Slam trophy at Roland Garros, where the Spaniard staged a sensational 3-2 comeback victory after trailing 0-2. It is quite possible that the course of this match in particular will influence the prediction for Jannik Sinner against Carlos Alcaraz.

It has to be said that the world number one and winner of the 2025 Australian Open, who has now reached the final of his third Grand Slam tournament of the season, is having a sensational year. Despite a three-month doping ban, he has only lost three of his 28 singles matches. However, two of those three defeats came at the hands of the two-time Wimbledon champion from Spain, who has not lost a match at the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Park since 2022.

Jannik Sinner – Statistics & current form

The 23-year-old Italian Jannik Sinner continues to lead the ATP world rankings and has now achieved the remarkable feat of reaching the final of all four Grand Slam tournaments in a row at this year’s Wimbledon, starting with the 2024 US Open, which he won, as well as the 2025 Australian Open. At the 2025 French Open, it looked like the Sextner was on course for his fourth Grand Slam title, but he was ultimately defeated 2-3 by his opponent Carlos Alcaraz in an epic battle.

Even now, the South Tyrolean is therefore the slight underdog, especially as the match points he missed in the Roland Carros final could also be a mental factor in this Wimbledon final. At LeoVegas, where new customers can pocket up to €100 in the form of a deposit bonus with the LeoVegas bonus, the odds for Jannik Sinner against Carlos Alcaraz are 2.10 for a victory for the world number one, who has lost his last five singles matches in a row against Carlitos and now has a very negative record of 4:9 against the Spaniard.

Jannik Sinner shows his power in the semifinals

However, writing off Jannik Sinner prematurely could turn out to be a mistake. Not only has he lost just three of his 28 singles matches in the 2025 calendar year, in which he had to serve a three-month doping ban after the Australian Open. The 23-year-old has also won 19 of his 23 singles matches at the Wimbledon Championships, including his semi-final against seven-time overall winner Novak Djokovic in almost supernatural fashion.

The Djoker, who broke the 100-win mark at this year’s London grass court Grand Slam, didn’t stand a chance against the Sextner (3:6, 3:6 and 4:6) because Jannik Sinner played the match with surgical precision. With his first serve, which he served at an average speed of 203 km/h, the Italian won 81 percent of the points. With a second serve percentage of 63%, he allowed only two break points, one of which he saved – not against a no-name opponent far from the top 100, but against record holder Novak Djokovic. Definitely a statement ahead of the South Tyrolean’s first-ever Wimbledon final.

Carlos Alcaraz – Statistics & current form

22-year-old Spaniard Carlos Alcaraz won his fifth Grand Slam singles title at the French Open in February, confirming that the future belongs to him on the ATP Tour if he remains free of long-term injuries. The player from El Palmar, Murcia, could become a true legend at The Championships in particular. Carlitos has already won the grass court Grand Slam twice in a row – now he is aiming for title number three.

The 22-year-old has an incredible 20 singles wins in a row at the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club, where he has won 24 of 26 singles matches for an almost surreal winning percentage of 92.3 percent. Jannik Sinner is also in good form against Carlos Alcaraz, and the current world number two is tipped to once again make it big in London, especially as he has had a good run against the player from Sesto recently.

Carlos Alcaraz recently with impressive serve

Carlos Alcaraz has made a lasting impression in the tournament. In the first round, he had a close call against Fabio Fognini in a 3-2 victory, before dropping two more sets on his way to the quarterfinals – including one against Jan-Lennard Struff. After dismantling local hero Cameron Norrie (6-2, 6-3, 6-3), he followed up with a commanding 3-1 victory over serving giant Taylor Fritz (6-4, 5-7, 6-3, 7-6) in the semifinals, showing what an all-rounder the 22-year-old already is despite his young age.

What was particularly impressive was that the Spaniard hardly put a foot wrong on his own serve. The world number two won 88 percent of the points on his first serve, which he served at an average speed of 204 km/h. Carlitos also allowed only two break points against him and lost only one service game, which Taylor Fritz promptly took advantage of to win the set. It is therefore quite possible that this Wimbledon final between two strong servers will also be a long one.

Jannik Sinner – Carlos Alcaraz Head-to-head record / H2H record

Head to head: 4:9

The two exceptional stars of the ATP Tour have already faced each other 13 times. After the head-to-head record was tied, Carlos Alcaraz now has a clear lead with nine wins, thanks to the Spaniard winning the last five matches against Jannik Sinner – including the crazy 3-2 comeback victory after trailing 0-2 and saving match points in the final of the 2025 French Open.

Jannik Sinner – Carlos Alcaraz Tip

Basically, our prediction for Jannik Sinner against Carlos Alcaraz is that the Spaniard will win his third Wimbledon title in a row, having now gone 20 singles matches without defeat at the venerable All England Club. Nevertheless, it was the Sextner who was responsible for Alcaraz’s last defeat on the London grass, although Sinner has lost all of his last five singles matches against Carlitos and experienced one of his darkest hours in the 2025 French Open final, when even a 2-0 lead and several match points were not enough to win the title (final score: 2:3).

It is clear that both athletes will go through different phases in this final, with mental strength also likely to play a role. Not least because of the aforementioned French Open final in 2025, we see the decisive advantage with the Spaniard, which is why, with the odds fairly even, we consider betting on the defending champion to win the tournament to be the most logical choice, although the match definitely has the potential to go the full five sets.