Will the Sextner extend his winning streak?

After a three-month break, Jannik Sinner is back on the ATP Tour and playing in the Masters tournament on clay in his home country as if he had never been away. The Sextner seamlessly continued his impressive performance at the 2025 Australian Open, after which he had to take a forced break. With the world number one having won all twelve of his singles matches in 2025, the odds are in Jannik Sinner’s favor for another victory against Carlos Alcaraz.

However, the reigning French Open champion from Spain is also a dangerous player on clay. “Carlito” is also in better form, having just triumphed at the Monte-Carlo Masters and winning 14 of his 15 singles matches since the start of the clay court season. Only in the final of the ATP Barcelona did he lose 0-2 to Holger Rune, which also influences our prediction for Jannik Sinner against Carlos Alcaraz to a certain extent.

It should be noted that the Spaniard has won seven of the eleven singles matches against the South Tyrolean so far and was responsible for three of the world number one’s six defeats in 2024. Nevertheless, we do not believe that the South Tyrolean, who is still undefeated in 2025, will let himself be beaten in his home country. We therefore recommend betting on Jannik Sinner to win the final and extend his winning streak in time for the French Open.

Jannik Sinner – Statistics & current form

23-year-old Italian Jannik Sinner remains number one in the ATP world rankings, despite having to take a three-month break after his overall victory at the 2025 Australian Open, where he won his third Grand Slam title. He had agreed to this with the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) after testing positive for the steroid clostebol twice in March 2024.

Now the South Tyrolean is making his comeback at the Masters tournament in his home country and has stormed into the final with five wins. Only in the semi-final against Tommy Paul did the world number one lose the first set before coming back to win 2-1 (1-6, 6-0, 6-3). In the quarterfinals, however, he didn’t give Casper Ruud – also a very accomplished clay court player – a chance, winning 6-0, 6-1. The Norwegian was just able to avoid being shut out in this demolition.

Jannik Sinner is still undefeated in 2025

Combined with his seven victories at the 2025 Australian Open, the player from Sesto now has twelve wins from twelve singles matches in the new season. There is therefore much to suggest that the Italian will also come out on top in the final between Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz, although he did suffer half of his defeats against the Spaniard (three out of six) in a very successful 2024 season.

It will now be crucial for the 23-year-old to cut out his unforced errors. He made 32 in the semifinal against Tommy Paul. That’s compared to “only” 17 winners. He won’t be able to beat Alcaraz with just his powerful serve alone – Sinner won 73 percent of points on his first serve against the American…

Carlos Alcaraz – Statistics & current form

Hardly anyone would dispute that the future belongs to 22-year-old Spaniard Carlos Alcaraz. However, after his impressive rise in the 2022 season, when he won the first of four Grand Slam titles at the US Open, “Carlito” has been increasingly outplayed by Jannik Sinner. Nevertheless, two of the four Grand Slam trophies in 2024 went to the player from Murcia, who won the French Open for the first time at his fourth attempt and would very much like to defend his title there in two weeks’ time.

In the absence of Jannik Sinner, who was recently suspended, there was virtually no way past Carlos Alcaraz during the clay court season, who won the Masters tournament in Monte Carlo and was only defeated in the final in Barcelona. The 0-2 defeat to Holger Rune was his only loss in 15 singles matches during the 2025 clay court season. The 22-year-old is now entering his first ATP Rome final with corresponding confidence, although this is only his second appearance in the tournament.

Carlos Alcaraz has only dropped one set

The Spaniard, currently ranked third in the ATP world rankings, did not give away too much in the Eternal City. In his five victories on the way to the final, he only dropped one set in the round of 16 against Karen Khachanov. He won in two sets against Jack Draper in the quarterfinals (6-4, 6-4) and against Zverev’s conqueror Lorenzo Musetti in the semifinals (6-3, 7-6). This means that the odds for Jannik Sinner against Carlos Alcaraz, which are listed for tip 2, are not entirely uninteresting. Bet-at-home is offering odds of 2.20 and currently has a Bet-at-home voucher on offer.

The 22-year-old’s big asset is his brilliant return game, which allows him to neutralize the South Tyrolean’s difficult-to-defend serve on the slow surface at the Foro Italico. This is especially true when he has to come over the second serve. In the semi-final against Sinner’s compatriot Lorenzo Musetti, Carlos Alcaraz ultimately won a breathtaking 73 percent of return points when the world number nine needed his second serve. This is an incredibly impressive statistic, given that Musetti only made one double fault and served his second serve at an average speed of 164 km/h. This speaks volumes about how strong Carlos Alcaraz’s return game really is…

Jannik Sinner – Carlos Alcaraz Head-to-head comparison / H2H record

Head to head: 4:7

The two ATP Tour stars have already faced each other eleven times, with Carlos Alcaraz clearly ahead in the head-to-head comparison with seven wins. The Spaniard also prevailed against Jannik Sinner in their last three encounters in 2024, most recently on October 2, 2024, when he won 2:1 in the final of the ATP Beijing to claim a singles title against the South Tyrolean.

Jannik Sinner – Carlos Alcaraz Tip

All in all, our prediction for Jannik Sinner against Carlos Alcaraz is that the Sextner will win the final, remaining unbeaten in his 13th singles match in 2025 and claiming his second major title of the season after the 2025 Australian Open. Although the Spanish challenger leads 7-4 in head-to-head matches, he was recently defeated by Holger Rune in the final of the ATP Barcelona. Overall, “Carlito” has already lost five singles matches in the new year.