Will the defending champion give his compatriot no chance?
In frighteningly dominant form, defending champion and world number one Jannik Sinner rolled over Alexander Bublik 3-0 (6-1, 6-1, 6-1) in the round of 16. The South Tyrolean not only won 81 percent of points on his first serve and an incredible 73 percent on his second, but also an unbelievable 57 percent of return points – and that on the fast hard court in New York City. With such performance data, Jannik Sinner’s next unchallenged victory against Lorenzo Musetti should be a mere formality.
However, Lorenzo Musetti has also left his slump behind him at Flushing Meadows. Before the US Open, the man from Tuscany had lost five of six consecutive singles matches – including his first-round exit at Wimbledon against Nikoloz Basilashvili (ATP 128) – but he has now won twelve consecutive sets in New York City.
However, it should be noted that this all-Italian quarterfinal could also be a closely contested match on paper. Lorenzo Musetti also flexed his muscles in the round of 16, defeating Jaume Munar 3-0 (6-3, 6-0, and 6-1). The man from Tuscany did not drop a single service game and impressed with a commanding 66 percent of points won on his second serve. It is also striking that the world number ten has not been involved in a tiebreak in any of his last twelve sets at the US Open. Meanwhile, none of Jannik Sinner’s 13 sets went to a tiebreak.
In our opinion, an interesting side bet is therefore to bet on Jannik Sinner vs. Lorenzo Musetti at odds of 1.80, available on the Bet365 app, that no set in this Italian quarterfinal will be decided in a tiebreak, regardless of the outcome.
Jannik Sinner – Lorenzo Musetti Head-to-head record
Head to head: 2:0
Strictly speaking, the two Italian compatriots have already crossed paths three times. However, their most recent duel in the quarterfinals of the 2023 Barcelona Open could not be played out, as Jannik Sinner had to withdraw beforehand and Lorenzo Musetti was awarded a walkover, which was not included in the record. The South Tyrolean won the other two singles matches against the man from Tuscany in straight sets without losing a single set, both in Antwerp in 2021 and in Monte Carlo in 2023.
Jannik Sinner – Lorenzo Musetti Tip
When the world number one meets the number ten, on paper at least, a closely fought match is to be expected. Not so in this case, as the odds from the best bookmakers for Jannik Sinner against Lorenzo Musetti underscore. For example, LeoVegas is offering odds of 1.06 for a win by the player from Sesto, while odds of 9.50 are being offered for the challenger from Tuscany to advance. However, there is really no argument against the dominant South Tyrolean being the clear favorite.
We see no value in any outsider bets. The betting odds for Jannik Sinner against Lorenzo Musetti are therefore consistent, as it will once again be a clear-cut affair. The Sextner has never lost a set to his compatriot. This makes it all the more interesting to bet that there will be a difference of at least seven games in a match played over three winning sets.
