Will physical fitness decide the outcome?
Two generations face off in the Sinner vs. Djokovic tip for a spot in the Wimbledon final. Driven by his hunger for records, the Serb has reached the Wimbledon semi-finals for the 14th time – a new record. In the Sinner vs. Djokovic betting odds, however, the 38-year-old is still the underdog.
The Djoker has repeatedly shown his brilliance on grass courts, but he has been unable to hide his initial difficulties with longer rallies. Extended rallies are just as much a factor in the Sinner vs. Djokovic prediction as the record of their previous encounters.
Jannik Sinner – Statistics & current form
Three-time Grand Slam winner is eager to win his first Wimbledon title and is in the semifinals at Church Road for the second time in his career. Just like in 2023, the record Grand Slam champion is waiting on the other side of the court. The last Wimbledon duel between the two opponents ended in a clear victory for Djoker.
Two more years have passed since then. Years in which Sinner has risen to the top of the ATP world rankings and become one of the most dominant players on the tour. The South Tyrolean has reached the final of the last three Grand Slam tournaments, lifting the trophy on two occasions.
Sinner already has three Grand Slam titles to his name, all won on hard courts. At the All England Club, the world number one is looking to extend his winning streak against the seven-time Wimbledon champion and reach the final for the first time. The Sinner – Djokovic prediction should please the South Tyrolean.
Sinner is there when it counts
Over the past 52 weeks, the three-time Grand Slam champion has earned a return rating of 160.4. Only Carlos Alcaraz (162.5) and Alex de Minaur (163.1) have a better rating in this category. The Spaniard snatched the trophy from Djokovic in both previous editions of Wimbledon.
In addition, Alex de Minaur has exposed potential problem areas for Djoker in this tournament. Long rallies are no longer the 38-year-old’s favorite discipline. Of 46 rallies with ten or more strokes, the Serb won only 14 against de Minaur (32).
Sinner is probably better than any other player on the tour at attacking his opponents’ second serve. No one won a higher percentage of points on their opponent’s second serve last year than the South Tyrolean (56.9 percent). In addition, the 23-year-old boasts the best “under pressure rating” over the past 52 weeks (247.2).
Novak Djokovic – Statistics & current form
His 14th appearance in the semi-finals at the All England Club is also his 52nd semi-final appearance in all Grand Slam tournaments combined. It is phenomenal figures like these that will continue to be talked about long after the Serb’s career is over.
The seven-time Wimbledon champion won his 102nd Wimbledon match in the quarterfinals against Cobolli (3:1). However, the 38-year-old is not a sure bet in our Sinner vs. Djokovic prediction. In his last two matches, Nole lost the first set.
This has already happened to him in 94 Grand Slam matches in his career. The Serb was able to win 54 of these encounters. Of the remaining 40 defeats, 28 were against top 10 players. A 0-1 set deficit could prove fatal against Sinner.
Djokovic remains a tough nut to crack
In his endless pursuit of records, Djoker is currently aiming for his 25th Grand Slam title. The Serb considers the tournament on Church Road to be his best chance. Accordingly, the 38-year-old has been focused in his matches on the green surface so far.
Against Cobolli (22), Kecmanovic (21), and Evans (18), the Serb had the ball firmly in his racket and allowed himself hardly any unforced errors. Only against de Minaur (44-18) did the record Grand Slam champion allow himself more unforced errors than his opponent.
If the Serb avoids unnecessary mistakes against Sinner, he has a real chance of reaching the Wimbledon final again. However, the world number one is known for his ability to eliminate any mistakes from his game. The South Tyrolean underlined this in the quarter-finals against Shelton (3-0), making only 17 unforced errors.
Jannik Sinner – Novak Djokovic Head-to-head record / H2H record
With his recent victory in the semifinals of Roland Garros (3-0), Sinner has taken the lead in the H2H record (5-4). The world number one has won the last four head-to-head matches against the Serb, but has lost twice on the hallowed turf of London (0:3, 2:3).
Jannik Sinner – Novak Djokovic Tip
We expect a magnificent contest between the two opponents. We rate the Serb’s chances slightly better on grass than on the other surfaces in the world, which is why we are ruling out a straight victory for Sinner in our Sinner vs. Djokovic tip.
However, we cannot take away the South Tyrolean’s role as favorite. As soon as this match turns into a physical battle, the South Tyrolean has the much better shots in his racket. Our decision is therefore “Sinner to win & both players to win a set.”