Will the Kazakhstani get a chance for revenge?
Three years ago, Elena Rybakina stormed into the women’s singles final at the Australian Open in Melbourne Park and was already leading 1-0 in sets before the match slipped through her fingers. In the end, she lost 1-2 to Aryna Sabalenka – the woman who has lost only one of her last 26 singles matches at the Australian Open and who could now possibly face the 26-year-old Kazakhstani in the final again. If Jessica Pegula beats Elena Rybakina, the Kazakhstani could advance, giving the 26-year-old the long-awaited chance for revenge three years after her bitter defeat in the final.
However, Jessica Pegula is certainly no walkover. The 31-year-old, for example, defeated defending champion Madison Keys 2-0 in the round of 16 and advanced to the semifinals of the Australian Open for the first time in her career with five clean 2-0 victories. Most recently, in the quarterfinals against Amanda Anisimova (WTA 4), the American won a solid 70 percent of points on her first serve and a powerful 64 percent on her second. If she can bring those numbers to the court now, she should be able to win at least one set. In our opinion, it is therefore highly likely that this semifinal will go the full distance of three sets.
Although the head-to-head record is basically even, with three wins each, the Kazakh player, who we also see as having the overall advantage in this semifinal, won two consecutive matches against her last fall. So if you agree with our assessment that over 2.5 sets are very likely, you could even bet specifically on a 2-1 victory for Elena Rybakina.
Jessica Pegula – Elena Rybakina Head-to-head record
Head to head: 3:3
The two women have already crossed paths six times on the tennis courts of the WTA Tour, and with three wins each, the head-to-head record is completely even. Just last fall, they met twice, with Elena Rybakina winning both matches. The Kazakhstani first beat Jessica Pegula 2-0 at the Billie Jean King Cup, before defeating the American 2-1 in the semifinals of the 2025 WTA Finals.
Jessica Pegula – Elena Rybakina Tip
The top bookmakers’ betting odds for Jessica Pegula vs. Elena Rybakina favor the Kazakh, who already made it to the Australian Open final in 2023 and, in our opinion, is the more complete player, as demonstrated by her dominant 2-0 victory over Iga Swiatek (WTA 2) in the quarterfinals, where the 26-year-old completely dominated the strong Polish player in the second set (6-1) after winning the tiebreak in the first set. We also see the winner of the 2022 Wimbledon Championships as having the advantage and expect Elena Rybakina to secure her ticket to the grand final.
For Jessica Pegula, however, this is an incredible opportunity that the mentally strong New Yorker will certainly not let slip away lightly. We expect the 31-year-old to put her heart into the match and take at least one set off the Kazakh favorite. Accordingly, the prediction for Jessica Pegula vs. Elena Rybakina is that this semifinal will go the full distance of three sets.
