Will the Australian end his dry spell?

While Lorenzo Musetti has qualified for the ATP Finals for the first time in his career, Alex de Minaur made his debut at the unofficial world championship in tennis a year ago. However, it was not a particularly successful outing. On the contrary! The player from Down Under lost all three group matches and failed miserably. After losing his opening match against Carlos Alcaraz 0-2 in 2025, the Australian now has four defeats in four matches. If Lorenzo Musetti also fails to beat Alex de Minaur, his dry spell will continue unabated.

Lorenzo Musetti is considered the big underdog in the Jimmy Connors Group, which he only entered due to Novak Djokovic’s shoulder injury. However, the Italian leads Alex de Minaur 3-1 in head-to-head matches. Moreover, he was able to take at least one set from the Australian even in his only defeat, which dates back to the opening match of the 2022 Australian Open. We therefore see a lot of value in betting that the player from Tuscany will win at least one set in this second group match of the 2025 ATP Finals.

We also think it’s entirely possible that Lorenzo Musetti, who has already beaten Alex de Minaur in two singles matches in 2025, will win the match overall and keep his chances of reaching the semifinals alive. However, he will have to improve his return game, because the indoor hard court in Turin, where he will have the fans behind him as the local hero, was clearly too fast for him in the opening match, when he failed to win a single service game in a clear 0-2 defeat to Taylor Fritz.

However, the Australian is not known for having as strong a serve as the American, which is why we think there is value in betting on the Italian to win the match. Lorenzo Musetti is available at odds of 3.20 against Alex de Minaur, which we found at Winamax.

Lorenzo Musetti – Alex de Minaur Head-to-head record

Head to head: 3:1

The two athletes have faced each other four times so far, with Lorenzo Musetti leading the head-to-head record with three wins. The Italian only had to admit defeat to Alex de Minaur in their very first encounter in the first round of the 2022 Australian Open. The subsequent three matches went without exception to the man from Tuscany, who also won both duels in 2025 – both on clay, however.

Lorenzo Musetti – Alex de Minaur Tip

Although the player from Down Under is favored by the top bookmakers, our prediction for Lorenzo Musetti vs. Alex de Minaur leans toward the local hero from Tuscany, who is about 250 kilometers away from his birthplace and has the support of the crowd. The 23-year-old has also beaten his Australian opponent in three out of four matches, including both encounters in 2025. Musetti does have problems with strong servers at times. However, his 1.83-meter-tall opponent is by no means one of the serving giants, which is why we fully expect the Italian to be able to play to his strengths in the return game.

In addition, the player from Tuscany won at least one set even in his only defeat against the Australian. Accordingly, the tip that at least one set will go to the 23-year-old this time around is a logical one. For the Italian to win over 0.5 sets, Lorenzo Musetti vs. Alex de Minaur betting odds of 1.77 are available in the Bet365 app, which we are betting on with five out of ten units.